One major problem with Peter is his extreme personal bias on many political and religious issues.

He is an ultra conservative - thus OBAMA hater, prolife and anti gay.

Unfortunately, last few years not only gold price has gone against him. He has argued that shorting the treasury is a non brainer, everyone should move to the Canadian dollars and the US$ is a coma patient waiting to die. Everything has gone the reverse of what he believes.

It is a mistake to mix investing with your personal bias. We have to look at the market and price actions to determine the directions.

Agree. Go to a five years chart and you can see the last time it hit triple bottom and failed. The price dived. This could be a repeat if it fails.

Peter Schiff was interviewed on CNBC before today crash on gold. I wrote some comments on the interview in my blog.

http://zpring.blogspot.ca/

When you weave in your personal bias into the trade, you will often lose. This is what is happening to a lot of gold bugs, republicans who believe that US$ will crash down, there is too much debt and these politicians even tried to shut down the government. I am not a liberal but I cannot stand this kind of extreme views.

It will be a shock to many if Obamacare works. If you look at the stock market, the health care sector is on a clear uptrend. I will not be surprised that Obamacare helps to save tons of money for the US health care system and at the same time taking care of those who could not afford insurance.

Key is to trade with the trend and price actions.

So far I am right. Today actions show some leakage of the information tomorrow.

If I am wrong, I will taking the opposite trades

I bet he is wrong again! The market has some room to go up short term. A crash will need 2 things - leverage and exuberance with high PE. We are not there yet. I am sure we will have a crash but probably not this year. We may have a correction probably going into late spring or summer but too premature to predict a crash.

When I was at the World Financial outlook, Campbell's conference, most of the people are negative. But Martin Armstrong and Liebovitz believe that the market may go higher that what a lot of people think.

I do remember Grandich's comments on the L shaped recovery, the CD$ and shorting treasury as a no brainer trade and US$ as a terminal sick patient. He had been wrong all the way. He will be wrong this time with the stock market at least in the next 1-2 months and also the uS$ may rise instead of fall.

The important thing is to follow you own signal. Besides the chart, look at the Treasury and Yen. If Treasury falls, and yen falls, "risk on" returns. The market can even rally to new highs. We will know after Friday's BLS report.

My bet is that last month figures was an aberration. If we get a positive report, we will see a nice rally. You will also see a crash in gold to test 1200.

Klaus, I am in agreement with most of your points. Thanks.

Klaus,

Below are some of Martin Armstrong's prediction:

1. Russia will invade Ukraine after the Olympics

2. Continued strengthening of the USD

3. The stock market has some upside because retail investors are not in yet. This is not the top as Grandich is predicting now. He wants to see some euphoria

4. Germany has municipal problems as what is happening in Detroit. Overall Germany and Europe are not in good shape as what people think.

5. Canadian dollar continue to weaken.

Some bonuses for all readers from the Campell's World Financial Outlook Conference:

1. Mark Liebovitz

o High probability of a palladium break on the upside with his technical signal

o Lookout of mariguana stocks

o Lookout of FEYE - potential break up

He also like gun stocks

2. It is quite clear there will be an over capacity for oil supply. Price of oil should go down. Short on strength

3. Keystone capital - a value investing on small stocks recommended these 3 stocks in Canada:

0 HWO.TO

o TLA-V

o E-V

4. Finally, there was a general optimism about Gas projects in BC. Looks like properties around Fort St John is starting to enjoy a huge boom like what happened in Ft Macmurray in Alberta ( oil sand ) and S. Dakota ( fracturing ). If true, it is good to start investing in income properties near Ft St John, BC. They got Christie Clarke, premier of BC for a keynote interview

Most of the participants ( Greg Weldom, Jack Crook, Victor Adair, Martin Armstrong all feel that USD will continue to strengthen. Peter Grandich however ibelieves that US market is going down to 6000 from now in 2-3 years. I am skeptical about this view. He is also bearish on USD for a long time!

Hope the above helps. Let me know if you have any views on the gas boom. It seems real. All kinds of infrastructure, hospitals, drilling, supermarket are popping up. Lots of projects on the pipeline. Currently, anyone who goes down to Ft ST John for a job in the morning will get one in the afteroon.

I may fly down to have a look. Talking to some people, it seems that you can buy a new Duplex for around $300K and get a rental for $2500?