"since then, we probably think that SPQ are prepared to go with Cliffs so whole thing may just be much ado about nothing. Maybe some of the other issues can be brought forward but probably only SPQ could do that as I doubt KWG will be able to get involved in this."
On what basis do you state that SPQ are prepared to go with CLF. To date they have stated that the CLF offer is superior. All they are actually doing in this case is to ask KWG for another offer, and if they get it, it is game on again.
If they do not get another offer from KWG, then the CLF offer stands as the superior offer, which still means squat.
I expect there is at least one more round of offers to come, as well as a lot of behind the scenes activity, but what if there isn't. In that case things continue as is until July 6th. If CLF have more than 33% of the proxies they are seeking, they will likely do nothing, as they will have the ability to deny the vote to NN and company. But what does 33% consist of? they and everyone else knows that there will be a huge turnout for this vote, but it is never 100%. If there is only a 70% turnout, which is actually much larger than normal, they only need 24% of the voting shares to defeat the merger. If this happens, then things continue as is for the interim. The real snag comes from the BOD not accepting their offer. If this happens, which I think is likely at this point, the SRP becomes very important, as it literally destroys their game plan to date. Hence the application for the OSC to not allow it. The fact that they are applying to have this stopped is a good indication of their worries at the moment, but all in all, it is just one of the many moves that are going to take place in the next few days.
Stay tuned
Best regards
K
