I have not posted much lately, at least for me. The reason is that I'm pretty much as confused as ever as to what to think about RVX.
On the one hand, we have a phase 3 trial underway that seems to be going reletively well, as far as we can tell with what scant information we have. Perhaps better yet, we have a "backup plan" in the form of a second trial, the phase 2 kidney trial. That trial seems even more promising than the first, to me at least. And it provides a backup plan in the sense that even if the first trial gets bad news (via the Futility Analysis), not all will be lost as we might get a positive lift from the kidney trial. Thus, strategically we are in much better shape in that respect than we have ever been in the past. All good.
There are also some potential catalysts out there: One is the Futility Analysis itself - which could provide us with a big boost sometime in 2H 2017. There is also the potential of getting FDA approval for the Phase 3 trial. This approval might come (if we are lucky) in 1H of 2017.
On the negative side of things, there are always many risks for a speculative stock like this. There is also the need to raise additional funds (and no clear guideance as to how that might be done... just a list of ranked options that left me scratching my head as far as whether they are very far down the road with any of the options). And there is a big loan that needs to be extended or otherwise dealt with. I have confidence in Don's ability to handle both of these items, but until they are successfully handled, they will remain drags on our stock price.
So where does this lead us going into 2017? I don't know exactly! That's the "fog" I mentioned in the title to this post. I feel as though my crystal ball is murky right now.... We've got some very positive things happening and a company that seems to be moving in the right directly at a good pace. But (on the other hand), we have several "big issues" that need to be resolved before this baby takes off.
Tax loss selling season in Canada is over. And will be over soon on the USA side of the border. That usually provides a new catalist going into a fresh year. This year, I was surprised at how "mild" any effect has been on our share price. Tax loss selling didn't have much of an impact this year and the stock price remains decent. Perhaps we will get a positive lift from this in January....
Overall, fingers crossed going into 2017. Could be a really good year. Or not! My own personal guess is that 2017 will be a good year for us... but of course that is what an optimist always says, right?
SF
