Here's my calculations, I think they're very modest and very much the lowest hanging fruits PTI has.
A 50G Optics module would be valued at 3000$ in the current price paradigm of todays market. PTI's significant advantage comes from lowers Cost of Goods. Traditionally it will take 4-5 packaged chips for Avago to make a module, POET can print them all on one, thus lower cost of goods.
Let's estimate the Cost of Goods for PTI at a 60% savings for example. That's a possible estimated 1800$/per unit advantage of say, Avago, Finisar, JDS Uniphase.
As an example, Avago sold it's millionth 25G VCSEL in 2015 after a little over a year:
1 million x 1500$ = 1.5 billion
With POET's cheap COGs, one could either sell more 50G VCSELs way cheaper than market price or make very high profit margins in a traditionally very low profit margin market. Keep in mind that POET has also made VCSELs in different emission or reception wavelengths of 980, 1310 or 1550 nanometers. There's much more possible than the 50G at 850nm wavelength that we're talking about, many different markets available. Also the 50G Vcsel will most likely be combined with another 50G Vcsel to make a 100G module, the "holy grail" of data centers. So many possibilities...
But POET at the moment applies to more than just the "VCSEL" per say. I'd say it applies to a very good portion of the product lines at Avago, Finisar and JDS. That is around 30-35 billion dollar worth market caps with simply these 3 companies alone.
So in my mind, if POET does in fact go into production of optical modules and the likes of Avago, we should easily be valued at the 3-5 billion mark, after first sales or partnership. This in my mind is very realistic. Also keep in mind POET proposes to do much more than what Avago does in terms of POET IP. Don't forget about phones, laptops, IOT, ect..
Disclaimer: Always do your own research, I am by no means a professional, just proficient in Google.
Reading:
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/168020/avagos-25g-vcsel-flourishes-crosses-1m-shipments
http://fibereality.com/blog/bullish-on-850nm-vcsels-avago-selling-vcsel-components/
Pages 22-23: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1437424/000110465914045676/a14-15296_120fr12ga.htm
http://www.poet-technologies.com/markets/
https://www.finisar.com/sites/default/files/resources/datacenter_bottleneck_solutions_crystal_ball_for_panelists_ofc_2013.pdf
https://www.finisar.com/sites/default/files/resources/VCSEL%20proliferation-PhotonicsWest2007.pdf
http://www.princetonoptronics.com/technology/technology.php
