Re: The chatter on the other board...they do not know enough about POET to understand how far along POET truly is, and how close the optical side will be available (after PET).
Some of them realize the III-V material solution is the next step as SI is limited in to where it can go from here. They also realize III-V material solution will be a signifcant step change in performance and energy savings, with many interative improvements evolving for years in the future (likely longer than they realize).
The relatively informed posters realize what the rest of industry has been pondering for years....there needs to be the next "thing". Who has it? Where is it? When?
Many chip makers having been looking at finding/creating the “next thing”. Creating research pods (like Samsung researching GAAS at U of Pen), tasking their R+D with others such as SI photonics, graphene etc.
All of these other technologies are many, many years away.
-Many SI Photonics R+D companies are folding after realizing this is much harder, and longer to perfect. Some are still working on this, but from what i gather, anything meaningful is at least 5+ years away, if not longer.
-Graphene. Same situation. We have heard or seen nothing that support Graphene will be ready anytime soon.
-GaAS. We know there are GaAS chips in cellphones today for ancillary functions but no one has really figured out the nuances around hole mobility, P+N channel optimization, to make GAAS as the main core processor- POET has done this. Samsung has U of Pen on 1 year leash and by the sounds of it, they appear to be at the beginning of the long journey GT started 20-25 years in R+D on Gaas. They MAY, if they are very lucky, be able to create something like GT did, 15 years from now.
I think we should:
-EXPECT the whole industry is working on figuring out "what the next big thing” is.
-EXPECT articles will show up regularly stating of something that shows promise. (In fact, it is these types of articles - ie graphene and SI Photonics- that have likely delayed POET SP rise. The industry has been conditioned to a “show me” state, after hearing many journalists waxed poetic about the next big thing before.)
-KNOW POET has done it. It is done and proven at 100nm. 40nm is in its final months of creation and will be ready for production in 2015. Samples chips, licensing, off to market in 2015. PET will be the first.
-KNOW any fab/designer who has 40NM capabilities, will be hugely interested in PET as it provides them the ability to compete, and likely beat what INTEL has next 1-2 years. How popular do think that will be with the rest of the industry that is not named INTEL?
-I BELIEVE POET is being very conservative about PET's performance at 40nm as they do not want to over promise and under deliver now. I BELIEVE they are confident PET will outperform INTEL at 14NM (performance) and 10 NM (power). KNOW that there are many cycles of perfecting PET to go much faster....the current 40nm project is only the first iteration. There are tweaks and improvements that can be made with state of the art technology equipment/expertise to make 40NM PET itself run faster (like Intel has with 3GHZ)... then 28NM faster...17NM and so on...
...then there is the home run. Optical.
All indication show POET is very close to integrating optical into PET to make POET. The feedback at the lab tour is that there are some minor items they need to work through, but nothing earth shattering needs to be developed to make POET a reality soon. I believe this it will 2015 they will have POET complete - my read only.
Conclusion:
Who else is going to bring a viable, true III-V material solution to the market in the next 12 months. I have seen ZERO evidence no one is even close. Only POET with PET.
Once the market digests this new platform and understands the runway of performance and power efficiency gains PET has ahead of it, with both PET refinement, scaling (down), and then the mother lode in POET optical….the sky is the limit for POET and the SP. This realization can happen any time.
Advice to all: Do not lose sight of the “Once in a Lifetime Opportunity” we have all been fortunate enough to be invested in from the begnning.
Sleep wellknowing the next 2 years will be like slowly unwrapping the best investing present you have ever dreamed of.
….all we have left to do is sit back and watch it happen.
