I agree dash.
To me, the critical difference between the Pellegrino report of 2011 and now is the expected time to market paired with the likelihood of adoption by industry.
It isn't emphasized in the letter Pellegrino wrote for Pierhal, but in the conference call he said it was critical that POET complete the chip in "timely manner". This was to squeeze the most value out of the patents before they expire, with the latter years being the most lucrative and the ones lost to any delays.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bLC-L2E5r_M#t=365
At first glance this is alarming considering that we are considerably delayed in getting the R&D completed.
Interestingly however, the time to market may not have changed significantly. Pellegrino could be heard to say that actual commercial products are most likely "several of years out, if [they] occurs at all". Imagine what the analysis will look like if POET manages to license POET a couple of times before it comes out!
Also, POET's success depends on the continued development of a robust patent portfolio and as we have seen very recently we have two very important patents for which the clock only just began ticking. Even the HARLID patent which most certainly plays a role in NASA's phased arrays and probably BAE's products is very young, and unknown to Pellegrino when he calculated POET's worth 3 years ago.
Also, IMO you have to believe that some of the risk factors include the likely emergence of competing technology between 2011 and now and that didn't happen. Back then, Intel and IBM both seemed to be breathing down our neck with Si photonics. I feel that this threat has likley subsided (although the R&D is most certainly continuing), if not from the big boys then from other POET sized companies. Recall that Lee Shepherd can be heard to refer to the Si photonics effort as the most recent "destroyer of venture capital" as he makes the point that the timeline to develop a new tech is too long to attract investor capital. And since then everyone has seemed to warm to the idea of including more III-V materials to extend Moore's law.
Furthermore, the urgency in the semi space to produce a technology allowing continued growth of the industry has increased by orders of magnitude. This should increase the likelihood that POET will be adopted into products in a shorter time frame than in 2011.
As many have stated this really is a perfect storm type situation and I feel strongly that all of the uncertainty and fear we have all endured over the last 3 years will be mitigated by the never-better timing of POET's entry into industry.
