The $10 number is a price target for some time after FDA approval, so say about a year and a half to two years.This is a target assuming that the FDA approves and that Mannkind does not try to market the Afrezza alone.Keep in mind that it is a conservative estimate and the number could be higher.I choose to use a conservative estimate because I want to build in a margin of safety just in case things go wrong.If things go right, the price could be much higher.If Afrezza is very successful and captures a significant portion of the diabetes market, the price could be a multiple of this estimate.I am hoping for this, but want to be safe.
The $5.78 number is the expected value using the $10 price target.This number has the risk removed.If you think that there is an 85% chance of approval and then a 60% chance that they get a partner or perhaps sellthe company, then $5.78 is what you would expect it to be worth.This is clearly greater than $2, so it indicates that there is unrecognized value in the stock.
I could have easily come out with much higher estimates, but they would not be as conservative.The first post in this thread used conservative estimates to value the stock, and the recent post removed the risk from that estimate.
My estimate of value has not changed during the year because there has been no new information to make me change my estimate on sales and I have been assuming dilution could get us to an estimated 500 million shares.The only thing that has changed for me is my assumption on the likelihood of FDA approval and commercialization.The trials are fully enrolled and quite a bit of the funding risk has been removed.So, the odds are currently much better and I actually think the shares are worth more now than I did earlier this year.
