In the last 20 years, Silver shorts (in Silver futures, based on the Commitment of Traders data) has only been as high as it is currently for five periods. Four of those five periods were followed by considerable rallies in silver prices. The one period where prices flatlined (fell modestly) was a slow and steady rise in shorts (as opposed to the spike-like move currently). Of course, with near record amounts on the short side of the boat, it would seem clear where Silver should go next but this time is different we will be told.

• Jul 1997: +70% rise over 29 weeks,
• Nov 2000: -13.5% in 53 weeks,
• Oct 2002: +13.2% in 12 weeks,
• Apr 2003 +19% in 24 weeks,
• Aug 2005 +114% in 37 weeks,

Average +40.5%

Chart: Bloomberg