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Casey Research's David Galland Interviews Tocqueville's John Hathaway

"It's just a matter of time before this resolves itself to the upside in a big way, despite whatever short term price b.s. we have to go through in the interim."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price rose in fits and starts during the entire Wednesday trading day. The high price tick came at precisely 11:00 a.m. Eastern time...which was about two minutes before the precise low for the U.S. dollar. Funny how that works, isn't it.

From that 11:00 a.m. high, gold got sold down to almost unchanged on the day by 1:15 p.m. Eastern time...but then rallied a bit into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. in New York.

Gold finished the day at $1,737.40 spot...up $17.50 on the day. Net volume was nothing special at 133,000 contracts.

The silver price didn't do much of anything until the London open at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time...and even then, a rally of some sort of substance didn't get started until shortly after the London silver fix was in at noon local time.

The high price in silver came at 11:10 a.m. Eastern time, about ten minutes after gold's high. From that point, the silver price followed a very similar path to gold's right into the end of trading in the New York Access market.

Silver closed the day at $34.27 spot, up 82 cents. Net volume was around the 29,000 contract mark.

From Tuesday's close, until 11:02 a.m. Eastern time yesterday, the dollar shed about 85 basis points. From that low, the dollar rallied sharply...and one hour and twenty minutes later the dollar had regained about 55 points of that loss...before trading a hair lower into the Wednesday close.

The gold shares gapped up at the open...and the high price for the stocks came shortly after the high was in for gold. Then they got sold off as the gold price gave up almost all of it's Wednesday's gains by around 1:15 p.m. Eastern time. But once the selling pressure disappeared, the gold stocks rallied a bit...but came nowhere near their earlier highs of the day. However, the HUI finished up respectable 2.27% nonetheless.

With the exception of the odd tiny junior producer, the silver stocks put on a pretty decent show yesterday as well...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index reflect that by posting a gain of 2.30%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that only 55 gold and 3 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday. I wasn't kidding when I said that November was historically a slow delivery month.

Once again there was no reported change in GLD...but over at SLV, a small withdrawal of 130,772 troy ounces was reported, which was probably a fee payment of some kind.

There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.

The Comex-approved depositories showed that they received 327,849 troy ounces of silver on Tuesday...and only shipped out 10,000 ounces. The link to that action is here.

Silver analyst Ted Butler published his mid-week commentary yesterday...and here's a purloined paragraph for free...

"The first point about MF Global that I would like to make is that I believe the event was primarily responsible for the sudden take down in the price of silver and other commodities yesterday and Monday. Here’s my reasoning. MF Global was one of the largest clearing (guaranteeing) firms of all, including being the largest on the NYMEX/COMEX (according to MFG’s web site). Since we know that JPMorgan and other large commercial clearing firms on the COMEX are the big shorts in silver and therefore wouldn’t rely on MF Global for clearing purposes since they clear their own trades, it is most probable that MFG held a net long position for its customers in COMEX silver. Since the immediate fall-out of the race to bankruptcy was customer account freezing and then an order for liquidation only, it stands to reason that long silver contracts would be among the first to be liquidated, especially if prices started off lower just prior to the freeze (which they did). The resultant fall in the silver price fueled more silver long contract liquidation by MFG customers. As is the case in times of emergency and panic, more attention is given to those leveraged positions which continue to generate loss. Any short contracts held in liquidation-only accounts would tend not to get liquidated withy urgency, since they weren’t incurring losses on the downdraft in prices. This would explain why selling occurred even in commodities without a big speculative net long position, like copper."

As you can imagine, I get a fair amount of material in my in-box on a daily basis. One of the things that caught my attention was this announcement by Endeavour Silver Corp. It was tucked away in their financial and operating results and unaudited financial statements for the Third Quarter of 2011...that were just released yesterday. Here's the pertinent paragraph...

"Management elected to not to sell all the silver and gold produced during the 3rd quarter due to the falling precious metal prices. As a result, precious metals held in inventory at quarter-end [were] 270,536 ounces of silver and 2,420 ounces of gold. Given that silver and gold prices are already rebounding in the 4th quarter, these inventories should substantially enhance our future financial results when sold."

I salute them for this...and I hope they continue to add more silver to their stockpile on a quarterly basis until the silver price are allowed to rise to something resembling free-market pricing...which is many multiples of what it's currently selling for. I hope this idea gains traction with other silver companies as well, as it doesn't hurt the bottom line of any company that does it...and it doesn't have to be a lot of silver, either. Up to five percent of physical silver production tucked away for a rainy day will sit well with all shareholders. My congratulations to Endeavour Silver Corp. for leading the way.

Washington state reader sent me this very interesting chart yesterday, which I thought was well worth sharing. Foreign investors own almost half of US Treasury debt outstanding...and the graph says the rest. Note the selling by foreign holders in recent years...and the corresponding increase in purchases by the Fed. That's Q.E. in action.

(Click on image to enlarge)

I have the usual number of stories today...and I hope you have time to plough through all of them.

¤ Critical Reads

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The MF Global Gamble and Jon Corzine's Lost Weekend

How about that Jon Corzine, eh? It seems New Jersey’s finest self-bought ex-Senator bet heavily on European debt, got walloped by a cavalcade of AIG-style collateral calls streaming in from outraged creditors, and tried to stave off the inevitable by commingling client cash with his own account.

From what I gather, Corzine essentially reached into the company cash register to pay off his gambling debts. He didn’t have enough money of his own to fight off the wolves, so he took the money he had access to, in a desperate, insane hope that his bets would eventually turn around and he could replace the missing cash later on.

Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi rips Jon Corzine a new one in this short blog over at the RS website. It's a must read for sure...and it's Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here.

Corzine Forgot Lessons of Long-Term Capital: Roger Lowenstein

There are few people on Planet Earth more qualified to write about Jon Corzine and MF Global than the above writer. Roger is the author of the book "When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management"...and knows Corzine like few others.

Thirteen years ago, when the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was desperately negotiating with Wall Street banks for a bailout, Jon Corzine, the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., called John Meriwether, LTCM’s founder, and read him the riot act. Wall Street would invest, Corzine said, but “JM” would have to accept more controls, including strict supervision over his firm’s trading limits.

Corzine, I wrote soon after, “understood the flaws” at LTCM better than anyone. The firm had no controls over risk limits, no accountability to anyone who wasn’t a trader.

If you had to pick only one story to read in today's column...this would be the one. This absolute must read Bloomberg item was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A...and the link is here. [By the way, if you haven't read Lowenstein's book...you owe it to you to do so! - Ed]

MF Global accounts shock leaves clients scrambling

MF Global Holdings Ltd failed to protect customer accounts by keeping them separate from its own funds, said a top U.S. exchange regulator, another shock for commodity markets scrambling to contain fallout from the brokerage's bankruptcy.

The revelation on Tuesday by CME Group Inc suggests Jon Corzine's MF Global violated a central tenet of futures brokerages. It could erode confidence in a market that for decades has enjoyed a sterling reputation for safety.

MF Global cannot account for a large amount of customer money that was supposed to be kept separate from other funds, sources said, and regulators are scrambling to review the broker's accounts. The cause of the shortfall -- including whether the company pilfered client funds or merely cannot account for the money -- was not clear.

This Reuters piece was posted over at news.yahoo.com yesterday...and I thank reader "h c" for sharing it with us. It's on the longish side, but definitely worth the read...and the link is here.

Where Was the CFTC?

How are the regulators going to explain this one?

MF Global, the failed firm whose chairman and CEO is Jon Corzine, has already destroyed the wealth of its investors and roiled the banking world. But now we are learning that it may have lost customer funds as well.

A major Wall Street broker in derivatives markets with $41 billion in assets, MF Global filed for bankruptcy on Monday after Mr. Corzine made disastrous bets on bonds issued by European governments. It initially appeared he was (only) gambling with his firm's own capital, but a federal official tells the Journal that MF Global has admitted diverting money out of customer accounts, which may be a violation of federal law.

May be a violation of federal law??? No kidding! The whisper number is that $1.5 billion of customer money may be missing. If that's the case, I wonder how Jon will look doing the perp walk? This is Washington state reader S.A.'s second offering in a row...and I thank GATA's Chris Powell for posting this Wall Street Journal story in the clear. The link to the GATA release is here.

Some 15% of U.S. Uses Food Stamps

Nearly 15% of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in August, as the number of recipients hit 45.8 million.

Food stamp rolls have risen 8.1% in the past year, the Department of Agriculture reported, though the pace of growth has slowed from the depths of the recession.

Mississippi reported the largest share of its population relying on food stamps, more than 21%. One in five residents in New Mexico, Tennessee, Oregon and Louisiana also were food stamp recipients.

This story was in the Monday edition of The Wall Street Journal...and I lifted it from yesterday's King Report. It's a short read...and the interactive graph imbedded in the story makes it worthwhile. The link is here.

Bernanke: More Stimulus ‘on the Table’

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said unemployment is still “far too high” and the Fed may take further steps to boost growth, such as buying mortgage bonds or changing the way it communicates its policy goals to the public.

Additional stimulus “remains on the table,” Bernanke said today at a press conference in Washington, declining to specify conditions that would prompt a move. “While we still expect that economic activity and labor market conditions will improve gradually over time, the pace of progress is likely to be frustratingly slow.”

It looks like the FOMC meeting was a non-event. This Bloomberg story from yesterday was sent to me by West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and the link is here.

Greece on brink of collapse in euro crisis

Uncertainty in Greece raised fresh fears that the single currency crisis will spread. European stock markets plunged and the Italian government’s borrowing costs hit record highs as investors warned that efforts to save the euro were “unravelling”.

George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, faced calls by members of his own government to step down amid fears that Greeks will vote against the bail-out package and the deep cuts in public spending its sponsors are demanding. As Greek politics grew ever more chaotic, there were strong political protests as the government moved to replace military chiefs with officers seen as more supportive of Mr. Papandreou.

A No vote could mean Greece is forced to withdraw from the single currency, raising doubts about the euro’s value and wiping trillions off the value of shares and loans across the continent.

This story from The Telegraph yesterday is courtesy of Roy Stephens...and the link is here.

Whispers of Return to Drachma Grow Louder in Greek Crisis

The political upheaval in Athens has suddenly made the once unspeakable — Greek debt default — a distinct possibility.

So now it is time to ponder the once unthinkable: that Greece might end its 10-year use of the euro and return to its former currency, the drachma.

Such a move is still officially anathema in Athens. But a growing body of economists argues that it would be the best course, whatever the near-term financial and economic implications. And now, with a referendum on the European-led bailout facing Greek voters, a vocal minority that has long called for a return to the drachma might find itself with a growing group of listeners.

This story was in Tuesday's edition of The New York Times...and is another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.

Merkel, Sarkozy and the IMF threaten to leave Greece without more money

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have warned the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, that Greece will not receive a penny more help if the Hellenic Government does not comply strictly with the agreements reached at the summit last week.

After an emergency meeting between Merkel, Sarkozy, Papandreou and other international leaders, among whom was the director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, the chancellor and the president announced the Gallo blocking aid to 8,000 million euros in the country until it clears the uncertainties and have called on Greece to take action as soon as possible, “if you want to continue building the future of the euro” in the words of Sarkozy.

This story was posted over at the economicsnewspaper.com website...and is Roy Stephens last offering in today's column. The link is here.

Top Gold Forecasters See Rally to Record by March

The most accurate forecasters say gold will rebound from its biggest monthly plunge since 2008 and reach a record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe’s debt crisis is unresolved.

Futures traded in New York may rise 13 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The predictions are from eight of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. Two declined to give forecasts.

“There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system and urgent need for safe-haven investment,” said Ronald Stoeferle at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, the second most- accurate forecaster in the past three months. “The environment for gold is just perfect.”

Well, if the environment is that perfect, then it's probably a good bet that $1,950 is too low. But then again, maybe that's as high as 'da boyz' will let it rise. We'll find out in the fullness of time.

Several readers sent me this Bloomberg story yesterday, but the first one through the door was Phil Barlett...and the link is here.

This Has Only Happened Twice in the Last Decade - Rick Rule

“I continue to think that one of the bright spots in this market for investors and speculators, with a 12 to 18 month outlook, is the disparity in pricing between gold and silver equities and physical gold and silver prices, as there have only been two times in the past ten years when, from our own calculations, gold and silver equities were attractively priced relative to the metal, that being 2001 and 2008. We are back strongly in that territory."

Eric sent me this Rick Rule blog yesterday...and it's posted over at the King World News website. The link is here.

Bernanke & the Fed to Ignite Gold and Oil - Peter Schiff

The Fed can’t ease anymore because rates are already at zero, and you can’t get any easier than that. As far as quantitative easing, when are they going to announce more of that? I don’t know, they are going to do it, they are probably already doing it quietly. But at some point they will be more vocal about it....

This is another blog posted over at King World News...and the link is here.

Your #1 Gold Risk - Jeff Clark

While we're convinced that our gold and silver investments will pay off, they don't come without risk. What do you suppose is the biggest risk we face? Another 2008-style selloff? Gold stocks never breaking out of their funk? Maybe a depression that slams our standard of living?

Though those things are possible, we at Casey Research don't see that as your greatest threat:

"Your biggest risk is not that gold or silver may fall in price. Nor is it that gold stocks could take longer to catch fire than we think. Not even the prospect of the Greater Depression. No, your biggest risk is political. As bankrupt governments get increasingly desperate for revenue, any monetary asset held domestically could be a target. It is absolutely essential that every investor diversify themselves politically. In fact, at this point, it is the one action that should be taken before anything else." – Doug Casey, September 2011

Jeff Clark, editor of Casey Research's monthly BIG GOLD newsletter, posted this excellent commentary in yesterday's edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch...and is a must read. The link is here.

John Hathaway: Senior Managing Director, Tocqueville Asset Management

Yesterday's edition of Conversations with Casey headlined this interview between John Hathaway and CR's own David Galland.

They discuss the disparity between gold stocks and bullion, as well as the general economic picture in the short term. This absolute must watch interview runs 8:32...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

Where is the peace dividend that was supposed to come after the end of the Cold War? Where are the fruits of the amazing gains in efficiency that technology has afforded? It has been eaten by the bureaucracy that manages our every move on this earth. The voracious and insatiable monster here is called the Federal Code that calls on thousands of agencies to exercise the police power to prevent us from living free lives.

It is as Bastiat said: the real cost of the state is the prosperity we do not see, the jobs that don’t exist, the technologies to which we do not have access, the businesses that do not come into existence, and the bright future that is stolen from us. The state has looted us just as surely as a robber who enters our home at night and steals all that we love. - William “Bill” Bonner, The Daily Reckoning

Despite the big decline in the dollar yesterday, the gold price did not respond in kind...although silver did OK. It was just another day off the calendar where the precious metal prices weren't allowed to go anywhere.

The preliminary open interest numbers for yesterday didn't reveal much. Gold o.i. was up...and silver o.i. was down. I expect both numbers to show some improvement when the finals are posted later this a.m. None of this will be in tomorrow's Commitment of Traders Report, as Wednesday was one day past the cut-off.

The final open interest numbers for Tuesday's trading day, which will be in tomorrow's COT report, didn't reveal much either. Gold o.i. was up a few thousand contracts...and silver o.i. was down a few hundred contracts. We'll have a much better idea of the lay of the land on Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time.

The 6-month gold chart posted below looks a little more positive now that another couple of trading days have gone by. The positive hammer on November 1st, along with the follow-through we had yesterday, makes the chart look a little happier, but we'll need more of a firm break to the upside before we can consider this rally intact. At the moment, it could go either way...and I'm sure JPMorgan et al are more than aware of that.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The silver chart looks very similar, except the price is below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The moving averages have formed the 'death cross'...but I wouldn't read much into that in a rigged market such as silver. And, if you look at the chart above, we're nowhere near that technical situation in gold.

The most amazing thing about this chart is that when the leveraged silver longs all got blasted out with the take-down to $26 on the September 26th, The COT structure turned the most bullish it had been in many, many years. We should be back to a similar position again in the COT structure in the tomorrow's report...and the price is now eight bucks higher.

So no matter how ugly the price action is at the moment, the set up is still wildly bullish in both precious metals...and it's just a matter of time before this resolves itself to the upside in a big way, despite whatever short term price b.s. we have to go through in the interim.

With the dollar in rally mode since its 11:00 a.m. Eastern time low yesterday morning in New York trading...both metals came under pressure through all of the Far East trading day...and into the London open. But the dollar turned lower shortly after that and, as of 5:17 a.m. Eastern time, gold is now back to its close from yesterday...and silver is down about 35 cents. It will be interesting to see how long this rally lasts, or is allowed to last. Gold volume is not overly heavy...but silver's volume is getting up there, so it's obvious that the high-frequency traders are out and about in the silver futures market.

Without doubt, it will be another interesting trading day in New York when the Comex opens for business.

That's all I have for today. I hope your Thursday goes well...and I'll see you here on Friday.

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