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Paper Currency Has Too Much Bull, Not Enough Bullion: Globe and Mail, Toronto

"Since that low in the gold price on September 26th, it appears that the shares are now outperforming the metal itself. Let's hope this trend continues."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold didn't do a whole heck of a lot in Far East trading on Wednesday, but the price was up about a percent shortly after 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...and that was the high print for the gold price in the Far East.

From there it went into a very slow, quiet decline that lasted until minutes after the New York open yesterday morning. The price bottomed at Tuesday's closing price in New York...and after that, a rally began. This rally ended just a few minutes before the 1:30 p.m. Eastern time Comex close...and the gold price pretty much traded sideways from there.

By the close of the New York electronic market at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time, gold was up $20.90 at $1,725.50 spot. Net volume was around 140,000 contracts.

The silver price pattern was a totally different animal to gold's price action yesterday...and was far more 'volatile' and, if you hadn't already noticed, it has a tendency to be more 'volatile' every day compared to gold. It was obvious to me that every time that the silver price tried to break out anywhere in the world on Wednesday, a not-for-profit seller was close by.

The high of the day [probably a hair over $34.00 spot] came shortly before the London a.m. silver fix at noon local time. After that, the price was never allowed to get very far...and had a downward bias for the rest of the day.

Silver closed up one thin dime from Tuesday's close at $33.37 spot. Volume was pretty decent at around 34,000 contracts net.

Here's the New York Spot Bid price for silver yesterday, to give you a closer look at the price action in the market where it really matters. You can see the actions of the not-for-profit seller quite clearly...although there is a chance that this could have been the small Commercial traders [Ted Butler's raptors] dumping their long positions for a profit. However, it's a stretch to think that a 'for profit' seller would ever exit a profitable long position in such a price-disrupting manner.

The stocks did just OK yesterday, but I'm hard pressed to explain the decline in the gold stocks starting about 10:25 a.m. Eastern time. In the space of less than 20 minutes, the HUI declined three percentage points. There was a tiny $12 drop in the gold price during that time frame, but a sell off of that size in the shares to go along with it, seemed like a bit of an overreaction.

But, when all was said and done, the HUI still finished up 1.04% on the day.

Despite the fact that silver was only up a dime on the day, most of the silver shares did much better than that...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up a respectable 1.85%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 66 gold and 7 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday. Most of the delivery action in gold centered around JPMorgan. The link to the 'action' is here.

There were no changes reported in either GLD or SLV yesterday.

The U.S. Mint had a smallish sales report yesterday. They sold 1,500 ounces of gold eagles along with 40,000 silver eagles.

And, for the second time in a week, the action at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday is not worth mentioning.

1 Tonne Gold Kangaroo Coin

Up until yesterday, Canada held the record for the largest gold coin in the world...a 100 kilogram monster that was produced by the Royal Canadian Mint some years back.

My good friend Bron Suchecki at The Perth Mint sent along this photo of the world's now-largest gold coin in the world...a 1,012 kilo leviathan.

(Click on image to enlarge)

There's also a way to view it in three dimensions...and see how it was made. The link to that is here...and is a must read/watch/listen. The West Australian newspaper also did a big story on it...and here's the link to that.

Silver analyst Ted Butler posted his mid-week commentary yesterday for his paying subscribers...and I've expropriated a couple of paragraphs for you.

"As far as the timing of the implementation of the all-months-combined position limits [in silver], it would appear to be at least a year or two from now. Upon first hearing of the time delay, most come to the conclusion that the silver manipulation will remain a crime in force for the next year or two. Perhaps that will turn out to be the case, but I don’t think so. Markets have a way of discounting and adjusting to certain known events before enactment, even manipulated markets. Further, a trader would garner unwanted regulatory attention were he to play over position limits up until the deadline.

"Of more concern is the current level of proposed silver position limits of over 4,500 contracts (22.5 million oz). This level is three times the 1,500 contract level requested by thousands in the public comments. The question becomes is the level so high as to negate the anti-manipulative protections promised by legitimate position limits? While I could make the case for 1,500 contracts in my sleep, the staff’s formula is a good first step in silver position limits. Everything is relative. 1,500 contracts would be a better level than 4,500 contracts, but 4,500 is a heck of a lot better than what we have now, which is no limit at all, thanks to the CME which only seems to exist to reward its biggest members and punish the public by promoting manipulative trading practices . Certainly, JPMorgan is currently short more than three times the amount of the proposed silver position limit, so one would think they have some short covering in store or some fancy explaining to do. Time will tell, but my reaction to what just transpired is positive.

I have the usual number of stories for you again today...and, once again, I will leave the final edit up to you.

¤ Critical Reads

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Overwhelming Majority: Merkel Wins Parliament Vote on Fund Leveraging

The German parliament has voted in favor of the controversial leveraging of the euro rescue fund by a large majority, with 503 out of 596 members of parliament backing the motion, 89 opposing it and four abstaining. The outcome is expected to strengthen Chancellor Angela Merkel at a summit on the debt crisis in Brussels on Wednesday night.

The leveraging, intended to boost the firepower of the €440 billion rescue fund, is part of a package of measures designed to tackle the debt crisis and protect the single currency. Other steps are expected to include a Greek debt cut of up to 60 percent and a plan to recapitalize European banks to shield them from the resulting write-downs of their bond holdings.

This Roy Stephens offering was posted at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and the link is here.

Thank you Germany: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Alone among EU leaders, Chancellor Angela Merkel went to last night's summit in Brussels with an iron-clad mandate. It is a remarkable moment. Never before – to my knowledge – has a national parliament demanded and held a prior vote on an EU summit accord.

Had this principle been established a long time ago, we might have avoided much of the relentless Treaty creep and EU aggrandizement advanced by secret deals at the Bâtiment Justus Lipsius. Thank you Germany.

Thank you too, judges of the Verfassungsgericht, for giving the Bundestag a veto on EU encroachments on fiscal sovereignty. The court is seemingly the only tribunal willing and able to defend the liberties of European citizens against EU over-reach, and is therefore my supreme court too even as a British citizen.

This story from The Telegraph yesterday is another Roy Stephens offering...and the link is here.

EU summit: crisis rumbles on as EU leaders produce half-finished deal

EU leaders are anxiously awaiting the verdict of the financial markets after the latest attempt to solve the euro crisis reached deadlock.

Crucial talks with private creditors over the losses they would take on Greek government bonds ran into a roadblock after a second euro summit in four days had earlier endorsed plans to recapitalise Europe's weaker banks by €106.5bn.

Proposals to increase the €440bn bailout fund's firepower "several fold" or closer to €1trn according to a draft statement, were also put on hold.

The man leading the Greek "haircut" talks on behalf of the banks and insurance companies, Charles Dellara of the Institute for International Finance (IIF), said there was "no agreement on any element of a deal," raising the threat of a default by Greece. The banks have offered to accept write-downs of 40% but the EU, led by German chancellor Angela Merkel, insists on at least 50% – and perhaps up to 60%.

This story was posted very late last night in The Guardian...and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along. The link is here.

Banks threaten to derail EU debt crisis strategy

The world's biggest banks have threatened to disrupt Europe’s plan for Greece to default on its debt, a move which raises the stakes as EU leaders seek a deal tonight to settle the sovereign debt crisis.

With only hours to go before the leaders gather for an emergency summit, the banks have warned that they will not go along with Europe’s proposal for a “voluntary” initiative to write off “60 per cent or more” of Greece’s national debt.

This story showed up in the Irish Times yesterday...and I thank Roy once again for sharing this story with us. The link is here.

Tensions boil over in Italian parliament

Italian deputies exchanged blows in parliament today as tensions over a tough economic reform programme came to a head.

At least two deputies from the Northern League, a member of the ruling centre-right coalition, fought with members from the opposition FLI party of speaker Gianfranco Fini. Two deputies grabbed each other by the throat as other parliamentarians rushed to separate them.

The parliamentary sitting was suspended for several minutes after the fight, which broke out because of sarcastic remarks on television by Fini alleging that the wife of League leader Umberto Bossi had retired at 39.

This is another Roy Stephens offering...and another story from the Irish Times yesterday. The link is here.

Europe Agrees to Basics of Plan to Resolve Euro Crisis

European leaders, in a significant step toward resolving the euro zone financial crisis, early Thursday morning obtained an agreement from banks to take a 50 percent loss on the face value of their Greek debt.

The accord was reached just before 4 a.m. after difficult bargaining. The severe reduction would bring Greek debt down by 2020 to 120 percent of that nation’s gross domestic product, a figure still enormous but more sustainable for an economy driven into recession by austerity measures.

The leaders agreed on Wednesday on a plan to force the Continent’s banks to raise new capital to insulate them from potential sovereign debt defaults. But there was little detail on how the Europeans would enlarge their bailout fund to achieve their goal of $1.4 trillion to better protect Italy and Spain.

This New York Times story was posted just before midnight Eastern time. This is the news that will greet the markets when they open both in Europe and North America. It's another article courtesy of Roy Stephens...and the link is here.

Stocks Beat Bonds Over 'Next 10 Years' - Marc Faber

The author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom newsletter, in a CNBC interview, said "money-printing" central banks such as the US Federal Reserve will keep prices elevated for risky assets like stocks.

"When you print money everything goes up at different times, different asset classes," Faber said in a live interview. "I think that stocks may still continue to go up, and I would rather own equities than government bonds for the next 10 years."

Printing money is the way global governments will evade debt crises such as the one that is gripping Europe now, he said.

Besides the text, there are a couple of very worthwhile video interviews as well. I thank Nitin Agrawal for sending this cnbc.com story our way...and the link is here.

India's gold and silver imports jump 80% to $31.1bn over six months

Investors in India appear to be moving out of cash and into gold and silver. As poorly performing equities hit valuations, analysts and traders insist there is an acceleration in the investing community to asset switch into precious metals.

Traders said revival of buying by stockists and jewellers at existing lower levels was meant to meet seasonal demand and the festival of lights coming up next week, while reports of a firming trend in the Asian region had mainly pushed up both gold and silver prices.

``People feel more safe investing in bullion, which might not be that rocky as compared to stocks,'' said Pradeep Jumla, bullion trader with an investment firm here.

This story was filed from Mumbai last Friday...and is posted over at the mineweb.com website. This is Roy Stephens last offering of the day...and the link is here.

Gold & Silver Bull Market Will Continue to Roar: Gerald Celente

“I make it very clear I’m in gold & silver. I was just primarily in gold and now I’m hedging with silver. I’ve been following gold since 1978 on a daily basis. I remember very well that collapse of gold in 1980 and this is nothing like it. This is not a collapse as I see it, this is not a bubble that’s bursting. A number of things were different back then from what is happening now...this is a global game."

Eric sent me this King World News blog yesterday morning...and the link is here.

The best mistake you'll ever make: Jeff Clark

This is a very interesting posting that was included in yesterday's edition of Casey Daily Dispatch. Jeff relays a conversation that took place between a friend's son and himself. This is very much worth the read...and I hope you get the point that Jeff is making. The link is here.

Remonetizing silver is well-supported in Mexican Congress - Hugo Salinas Price

Industrialist Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, told King World News yesterday that there is extensive support in the Mexican Congress for remonetizing silver but that several congressional leaders doing the bidding of the Mexican central bank...and are blocking the legislation.

Salinas Price also suspects that the regime of the Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi was overthrown by Western powers because he was contemplating an African currency backed by gold. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News website...and is an absolute must read. I thank Chris Powell for writing this introduction on my behalf...and the link is here.

Paper currency has too much bull, not enough bullion: Neil Reynolds

During the Babylonian reign of King Nebuchadnezzar, 2,500 years ago, an ounce of gold (it is said) purchased 350 loaves of bread. The same ounce of gold still bought 350 loaves (at $2 a loaf) in the 1980s (when gold sold for $700 an ounce).

This is superficially interesting but, by itself, means little. What about every other product in the Babylonian supermarket? As a matter of fact, an ounce of gold today does buy 800 loaves (at $2 a loaf). This is a better performance than paper. In 1900 one dollar bought 14 loaves of bread; in 2010, it bought 16 slices from one 20-slice loaf.

This most excellent story was in Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper on Tuesday...and I borrowed it from a GATA release yesterday. It, too, is a must read...and the link is here.

Gold market maelstrom likely a false alarm: John Embry

The gold market is now consolidating following its stunning two-month US$400-an-ounce rally that started at the beginning of July.

This consolidation is to be expect. In fact, it's healthy.

Yet, some of he price action is so remarkable counterintuitive that there's little doubt that the western central banks are intervening as conditions on the global economic and financial front continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate.

This story was printed in the October edition of Investor's Digest of Canada...and is posted over at the sprott.com website. I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for bringing it to my attention. It's another must read, or course...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

The political cartoon below is from Puck Magazine...and is dated 26 April 1911. "The Helping Hand" cartoon parodies Emile Renouf's 1881 painting of the same name. The cartoon shows Uncle Sam and J.P. Morgan rowing a boat. Morgan's enormous size reflects his stature and the importance of his banking operations to the country.

Nothing much has changed in the last 100 years...has it? I thank Russian reader Alex Lvov for coming with this astounding cartoon...and the art history behind it.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Sponsor Advertisement

In 2011 Inter-Citic Minerals Inc. (TSX:ICI / OTCQX:ICMTF) has a CDN$6.3 million exploration program underway to include up to 25,000 meters of drilling and 10,000 meters of trenching. Inter-Citic's 2011 exploration program is geared towards further resource growth on new areas of the property.

With up to seven drills deployed, exploration in 2011 will continue in the Acadia, XP, and NR-1 Zones, as well as new work off the eastern end of the current Dachang Main Zone, where a gap between known mineralization extends for approximately 4 km under thicker overburden. On the far side of the gap soil geochemistry has shown a significant number of large gold soil anomalies in the South East Area Zone, which the Company believes is likely the continuation of the Dachang Main Zone mineralization not visible under the gap's heavier soil cover.

For the first time Inter-Citic will also be systematically drilling under the current resource area of the Dachang Main Zone ("DMZ"), which has only been drilled to a vertical depth of approximately 150 m from the surface. The Company will be testing the mineralized fault structure of the DMZ at depths of between 500 m and 750 m. For more information, please visit the website.

¤ The Wrap

In 1900 one dollar bought 14 loaves of bread. In 2010, it bought 16 slices from one 20-slice loaf. - Neil Reynolds, The Globe and Mail, Toronto...Tuesday, October 25, 2011

It was sort of a nothing day yesterday. It's my opinion that both metals were prevented from doing what they really wanted to do...and that is rise more than they did. It was very obvious in silver...and less obvious in gold.

The preliminary open interest numbers for Wednesday showed increases for both silver and gold...and the final open interest numbers for Tuesday's trading day also showed increases, but they were much reduced from the preliminary numbers.

The final o.i. figures from Tuesday will be in tomorrow's Commitment of Traders Report.

Here's the 1-year HUI chart. We've got a long way to go to get back to the old highs. But, if you compare the late September low to where we are now, we've just about regained half the losses already...and gold is nowhere near its old high. Since that low in the gold price on September 26th, it appears that the shares are now outperforming the metal itself. Let's hope this trend continues.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Neither silver nor gold did much of anything during Far East trading during their Thursday...but the prices of both have been in slow decline since around 11:00 a.m. Hong Kong time. London has now been open about wo hours...and the silver price is basically unchanged from its close on Wednesday in New York. Gold is down about fourteen bucks. Gold volume is pretty light...and silver's volume is 'average'...whatever that means these days. I also note the dollar is down about 50 basis points as of 5:08 a.m. Eastern time, but that certainly isn't being reflected in the price of either metal at the moment.

That's all I have for today. I hope your Thursday goes well...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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