Golden Minerals Company

Whither the markets for gold and silver and the JPMs?

Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM) bottoms around 2011.45 (June 13th/14th, 2011), which tracks the ebbs and flows of capital on a global scale. “The most important aspect will be if gold can produce a low the week of June 13th.”

Each and every market segment has its own model and only when a particular model is strangely attracted or correlates to the ECM turning point that markets will evolve around, will those particular markets become the investments that are favored for the oncoming cycle. Each market segment is only hot when it attracts the capital concentrating in that sector, thus causing a surge in prices.

Martin cautions that “the best of all worlds for a bull market shall be for gold and silver to make a low on that day” in June….the best possible signal for the next 4.3 years. A correction doesn’t mean the market crashes, it may only indicate a sideways movement. He mentions a possible March high…which has not been the case, followed by a June low between $1400-$1509…but it has already hit that. Major resistance for March was $1531 with technical support at $1100 going into June. The other possibility is a June extreme high of $2010 with an October low…which Martin cautions will be “problematic”. In essence the gold bull ahead needs a pause first. It is the coming debt defaults which that will cause gold to rise exponentially, with a time frame of about 11 months during which markets (general markets?) rise 3 to 5 times before a phase transition …so it will be positive for gold to pause here before it’s market sector commences a phase transition higher. It is not the price of gold so much as the PATTERN that unfolds. The KEY is for gold to line up with the ECM.

David Galland of The Casey Report (Goldseek.com) in identifying trends sees a major shift in Fed. policy in the next month or two (June) with the possible temporary cessation of quantitative easing along with the continuing debasement of the $US. This may cause a short term disruption. The Fed. may pause in its quantitative easing agenda hoping that the market will step in to fill such a gap. This could cause the stock market to crash before they come back in with some form of QE3. Meanwhile big money may see this as a clear signal that it’s safe to get back in t the $US. If the $US “comes roaring back, commodities, including gold and silver, would likely take a fairly hard hit…Again, this is a short-term view. The longer-term trend for the precious metals is absolutely intact, because the fundamentals are entrenched – namely that the sovereign debt and spending is out of control, and politically uncontrollable.”

He sees a short shift into equities followed by and exit from them into bonds. He suggests increasing cash positions and being cautious of even gold. …if you own high-quality gold stocks, – companies that have the goods and can weather the coming storm – you can certainly just ride right through what’s coming… If I’m right, and commodities – including precious metals – sell off, and mining stocks sell off even more, there will be some fantastic opportunities to take advantage of. The people who are paying attention will be able to clean up.”

Stewart Thompson (Gracelandupdates, 321 Gold .com)

“While gold has risen from $1300 to $1500, the public has actually become less interested in gold and gold stocks, again, because this is a crisis and greed will play a diminishing role, while fear plays an exponentially increasing role…The public’s disinterest in gold is a huge positive for the long term price and stability of the gold sector, but not an immediate catalyst for powerful liquidity flows into gold stock…as the dollar goes lower, an institutional money panic will occur, causing massive liquidity flows out of the dollar and into the general equity market….Gold stocks as a group, including even some scams, should go vertical for a substantial period of time as that institutional panic occurs.… The destruction of the long bullion/short gold stocks ratio trade (by the funds after the banks cut off their financing ) likely begins as price surges over $64 on the GDX.”

So, will we see the fundsters attempt to drive JPM stocks lower before they capitulate and get slaughtered on their short trades? For example, if an ECU is shorted at 62 cents, is it possible there could be quite the dramatic share price drop creating a huge buying opportunity for those with cash? Can you imagine the possibilities across the board for the JPMs?

What times we live in!