We'll still have to wait for more information to come in, but here's my current thoughts regarding Amungee, and the Beetaloo Basin:
Given the 'newness' of the exploration in this area, and not having much to directly compare it to, I didn't really have any expectations or predictions on what the results of the Amungee flow testing would be.
I did, however, have my 'hopes' of what the flow testing results 'might' be, ...and unfortunately it was a hell of a lot higher than what we've been told so far.
.4 - .6 MMscf/d ...with spikes over 1 MMscf/d?
If this was a vertical development well in an already producing field, that might be a good result. But for a horizontal well, in the middle of nowhere, off in the desert, in a largely unproven basin? ...I'm sorry, but as far as I'm concerned, those flow rates just aren't going to cut it.
I have a theory now as to why Falcon issued the interim RNS update. I think it might be because the flare was clearly visible from the highway, allowing those in the area to get a good look at it and estimate the well performance. It appears to me that the flare must have looked far more impressive in the amateur video that was posted the other day with the news article, than it did in real life. So perhaps Falcon, in the spirit of disclosure, felt it was best to update the broader market.
While I was optimistic, I had a feeling that something 'wasn't quite right', just by the way the share price was behaving. It looks as though perhaps others seemed to 'know' that the results so far were nothing to write home about.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not dismissing the whole Beetaloo Basin, or even the Amungee well itself. Rates may improve and stabilize somewhat. Plus, in the future they have the opportunity to improve upon their drilling, completion, and stimulation practices, to potentially achieve better results. So I'm looking forward hearing Origin's assessment on these and other items at the conclusion of the testing program.
Nevertheless, given the costs involved with horizontal drilling into shale formations, coupled with the remoteness of the acreage, ...I think they're going to need MUCH better results from flow testing than what we've seen so far.
just my opinion
