JJ 239am (!?!) : There is such a lack of disclosure with this, it is like throwing darts. My wing is not what it used to be, and the chicken bonz are befuddled. This Monitor thing is a complete failure, as far as I can tell. Commons are still in the dark, with sunglasses, in a cavern. Despite the ongoing rumors out there that I am a Bondie Stooge and Insider Basher, I know nothing more than the next shareholder. My best guess is no crispy critter scenario, because fear and greed will force the parties to come together. Although, I still think Management/Bondies/Tenor are continuing their shenanigans and are all in cahoots. My suspicion is that any give-away will not be anything that effects Management's/Tenor's piece of the high-dollar pie, and that management is negotiating with shareholder equity while fighting to keep all the dollars they can for splitting later. I suspect this recent "drama," and "negotiations in chambers" thing, is all about Fung being able to point to the court for any give-away that is perceived by shareholders as being too much. That would be an easy out for Fung to appear honorable. As someone familiar with Asian heritage, it is very Asian to save face (honor) with a built in excuse.
JJ 458am : The reason I posted the CCAA procedures link is so that shareholders are informed of the likely outcomes according to CCAA regulatory oversight and guidance. My experience has been that most ("most" is not an exaggeration) do not perform the DD. Credible and verified DD is what one should understand in investment decisions. To answer your question about coming across companies in a similar situation, the answer is no. Nortel is about as close as it gets. I understand that our company situation is unique with the potential award. The pot of gold may only be "in the bag" because we as shareholders believe it, because potential is still just that, potential. Is it any different than holding every possible number in a lotto and saying we gotta guarantee? What if someone else (or even more than one) also hold the winning numbers? Uh Oh. Anyway, there are never guarantees in predicting the future of a potential award. Anything can happen, good or bad. Each and every company situation is unique. The feeling that, because we are shareholders of this company, our company's situation is more unique than everybody else's, is not unusual. I believe a Plan was presented to the judge on Oct 11 (because of the court order, with prejudice) that has not been agreed on by Bondies, and is considered a working document, so it was not filed. Management and Creditors are negotiating a contract, in this case called a Plan of Arrangement/Compromise. No one signs (for a Plan, votes) until everyone in the room can somewhat live with what is contained in the contract (Plan). The whole premise of CCAA is to come out with a Plan. Being reasonable or unreasonable is all a matter of which side one is on at the negotiating table. What is unreasonable/reasonable to Fung is reasonable/unreasonable to Bondies. The judge has a lot riding on this personally because he somewhat represents regulatory oversight. Failing to come out with a Plan indicates that the system does not work, especially when it is apparently very close to being all good if they can get the Bondies on board. This is why there is all this drama about meeting in chambers and so on. As mentioned before, thinking Fung will save face, and have the court to point the finger at if shareholders complain there was too much of a give-away.
To Everyone: Posting CCAA procedures is not Bearish. It is reality. If Uber-Long and your DD indicates that the potential reward will come to fruition, your decision has been made. Because anything can happen in the negotiation of a Plan, new investors might consider not establishing a position until the disclosure of any giveaways in the Plan, and then take advantage of sp moves. Better to pay up (if it goes up) on a more sure position than to enter with current massive uncertainty. Management/Bondie/Tenor fear and greed should win out in Plan negotiations, so the apocalypse scenario should be known as being there, and possible, but highly unlikely.
Hope all of this works out for commons.
