Jurek
With regards to:
The only problem with this assumption is the projected Return On Capital ($1.6 billion) invested by the suitor in this low productivity and low priced bitumen assets own by CLL. It would take 15 to 20 years to get your money back when you can get a 18 months payout in the conventional oil play in Alberta”
Based on the example I have previously given the cash stream from just the bitumen production, without taking into account conventional production or the refinery, would give the potential suitor a return of about 13% per year on his investment of 1.6 billion (1.8 per share +900 million debt – 100 million cash on hand) If invested at the same 13% this would give the suitor a payback time for his initial investment of about 6 years, not the 15 to 20 years you indicate.
BBWANAA posted previously that Connacher's own numbers indicate an after tax value of 4.98 per share. (http://agoracom.com/ir/Connacher/forums/discussion/topics/510536-re-opti/messages/1621926#message)
$2.50 per share would be a 50% discount on Connacher's published after tax NAV .
Martin
