Martin,
I understand your position. I agree that Cll with debt paid by the suitor could have a positive Free Cash Flow.
The only problem with this assumption is the projected Return On Capital ($1.6 billion) invested by the suitor in this low productivity and low priced bitumen assets own by CLL. It would take 15 to 20 years to get your money back when you can get a 18 months payout in the conventional oil play in Alberta.
Look at the CLL`s POD1. After 4 years of operation the production is below 6500 bbl/d and dropping despite $500million sank in to the ground (~$350 million initial investment and ~$150 million with sustainability and capital expenditure in last 4 years).
Anyway, you have got rebel exited by bringing heavy gun arguments about misleading.
Sorry if you have been mislead by me. I do not see why but anything is possible. As you can appreciate I try to avoid giving my mid or long terms CLL price projection.
I am just going with the opportunities presented by the market and the management. In addition I try to make sense by looking at the company financial straggle and related share price performance (see the financial reports and the charts).
You on the other hand (I am sure not intentionally) try to make price projection based on possibilities and disregarding the realities.
Just 2 or 3 years ago when the price of oil was at today`s level you suggested to everyone that the CLL at $3 is the safest investment you can make with 10 times buger potential (which would be $30 per CLL share).
I know, I have my dreams as well and I sincerely wish you good luck with it.
