The Q-1 Report can be found at: http://www.connacheroil.com/en/investor/cll-2011-05-17.pdf
Positive Results:
1) The Horse River electrical subsation which is located near the Great Divide has been recently completed, commissioned and started up. This will regulate the power supply available to POD 1 so hopefully there will be no more power outages at POD 1 which resulted in lowered production and prematurely burned out ESP's in the past. There will now be no more excuses concerning power problems hopefully.
2) The Algar turnaround was completed in May already.
3) Government approvals to proceed with "SAGD plus solvent" have been granted. If the pilot project is successful at Algar, the technique wil be applied throughout the exisiting Algar production base.
4) Management anticipates: "engaging in a formal joint search process later in 2011 to help diversify risk and to assist in financing of our oil sands expansion plan, pursuant to the expansion proposal and Environmental Impact Assessment we have submitted for approval to regulators. We believe that this approach will enable us to expand and grow aggressively with little or no additional incurral of debt or permanent equity share dilution". (pg 9)
5) "Successful asset sale add $80 million cash which reduces net debt, after some deployment; approximately $150 million total during 2011". (pg 8)
6) "Refining netbacks were 221% higher in Q1 2011 compared to Q1-2010 when costs exceeded revenues and refining netbacks per barrel of refined petroleum product sold also demonstrated significant improvement. This income was due to refining and selling higher volumes, higher realized prices and lower feed stock costs due to wider heavy oil differentials in Q1 2011" (pg 18) The Refining Netback was $4,687,000 or 6%.
Negatives:
1) Due to the previously announced tender offer for outstanding notes and related transactions, there will not be a follow-up conference call nor will there be an operational update presentation at the shareholders meeting. Shareholders must wait until August 12, 2011 for any new information!!!!
2) "Total diluent costs increased by 100% in Q-1 2011 compared to Q1 2010 due to the 88% increase in bitumen sales volume (as a result of Algar) and a 20% increase in diluent pricing, which was driven by higher benchmark prices in Q1 2011, which also reflected the disconnect between WTI & the Brent Crude Oil benchmark, which is more aligned with diluent pricing than is the case for WTI". (pg 66)
3) Conventional production is being kept a secret. New lands acquired and new plays being developed which are available etc. are all being kept secret for competitive reasons.
The problem for the shareholders today appears to be that we are being asked to blindly trust management until at least August 12th at which time we will be informed of what Connacher production is at Pod One and Algar, and we must also wait to find out what is happening with conventional production numbers on the new wells. So it appears that the result is that the share price will be kept low due to this lack of information and the speculation which will result. So any new acquirers of Connacher shares are being asked to purchase new shares today or from now until August at a low price with no production numbers available to them. This is capitalism at it's best, or worst..........risk your money on no news.
Cheers; Scott
