One thing to look at is that these sales you speak of are evidently not being plyed to rake in the maximum amount of profit available. most happen in the after hours markets where there are no bids.
Which is exactly what I'd do if I were trying to create the impression of price suppression, because it stands out like a sore thumb and is bound to be noticed.
Another point, if a huge large long had this supply of silver, they would in my mind be relatively smart money that would not be dumping into the market an asset that is still 40 to 50 % below it's all time high. What else can you purchase right now that is below it's price from 40 yrs ago...not even cabbage patch dolls.
Silver's all-time high was very brief - only a few months compared to 40 years of prices well below the current. Looking at the chart from 71 onward, silver averaged below 10, and was stuck around 5 for almost 15 years. If I had built a position over that time frame, today's prices would be more than adequate to liquidate, provided I sold carefully into a rising market. Waiting around for a spike to the old high (which is probably where it would stall and consolidate - perhaps back to 30) isn't a good strategy if I'm unloading a major position. Certainty, not maximum profit is the guiding principle here.
Some good points though, i would think that anyone with that large of a long position would be well informed investor with deep pockets. Looking at the markets the way i have the last 20 yrs there is no where this large position could have been built up without disrupting the market and the price in my opinion. In other words no way to build such a large position without exposing your hand. Just not enough silver to do so without outing your buys to the world.
I can think of one way to build such a position. Mine it, and stockpile. That would never enter the market, so it wouldn't affect the price. It would just accumulate in some warehouse until such time as a decision was made to sell.
Who would do such a thing? China or the old USSR perhaps? Silver is a by-product remember. It wouldn't need to be refined until a decision to sell was made, so no cost is involved other than separating it from the main ore. No way to tell if I'm right of course, as that info would be a state secret. Even BHP or Rio could do something like that though - just book the ore as waste with no recovery value until you had more favorable prices.
Now the opposite of naked shorting through paper derivatives is endless with the support of some large banks that have been proven to be short 10 yrs supply.
There's any number of reasons to be short in the paper market, much of which is about hedging. Given that it IS a paper market - cash settled - anyone with deep enough pockets could short silver without it being a nefarious scheme - just a trade that had gone terribly wrong. We've seen plenty of that lately.
None of what you or I have said, however, negates each other's thesis. It's entirely possible that both strategies are in effect. What that would do to the price would depend on who had the stronger hand I suppose, all else being equal.
I'm just offering a plausible alternate scenario. I've no doubt investment demand is driving most of today's price, but nothing like a good conspiracy theory to move things along when you have a huge position to unload.
To me, a gold suppression scheme has more credibility, since gold is a marker of currency debasement. Nonetheless, it might not be happening for that reason alone. If a plan existed to revert to partial gold backing in a new world monetary order, it would be necessary to have gold distributed amongst as many nations as possible. For that, you'd need some catalyst to prompt foreign CB buying. A rising gold price would provide that catalyst, with periodic knockdowns being used to assist foreign CB purchases. In that schema, currencies could again be managed in tight ranges and currency speculation would be reduced, if not entirely eliminated.
Again, I'm not saying that's the plan, but it does seem like a credible scenario. We obviously can't continue much longer on the current path without some kind of breakdown leading to war.
ebear
