I'm a bit surprised that ebear seems to be somewhat skeptical of the Phydias posts on silver. I have really appreciated them for the reasons he gives. A variety of viewpoints is simply great IMO.
I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade - my basic nature is to be skeptical, so it's not like I suddenly changed or anything. The silver analyst I most closely follow is Dave Morgan - I tend to discount the rest as drawing too many conclusions. As for GATA, I think they've been discredited. Not to say their basic case is wrong, but their methods and conclusions are weak.
Like Dave, I try to be agnostic. We can never really know what's happening behind the scenes - as investors we can only react to events. Once we realize that, the next question becomes "quality of information" ie: what really happened? But before we reach that point, we have to realize that people in general like "explanations." We see this every day on CNN - oil went up because X, the market went down because Y. Like *they* know? But what else are they going to say? "WTI gapped on the open today, nobody knows exactly why, but here are a few guesses we came up with over coffee?" No. The audience wants answers. They provide them.
On the actual question "is sliver being manipulated" I'd probably agree - most markets are these days, why should silver be any different? As to who's behind it, and why, I really couldn't say. I could construct a plausible explanation, then hunt around for clues that fit my thesis, but in the end all I have is a theory, and for a theory to have value it has to make predictions that can be tested.
There is one question I'd like answered though. If investors are pouring into silver because it's a monetary metal, then why do they care so much about the price? If I've understood their theory, possession of silver, especially 1 oz coins, is insurance against monetary collapse, social breakdown, hyperinflation, and so forth. In those circumstances, the value of paper currency becomes irrelevant. So why look a gift a horse in the mouth? Why raise such a fuss about attempts to suppress the price? They are handing you a gift. Take it.
OTOH, if you're holding silver as an "investment" then you've done pretty well these past two years. If nefarious forces held you back, they didn't do a very good job of it. Therefore, ignore them. As long as the trend is intact they don't really matter - in fact if they're that obvious, just time your trades around them.
Makes sense to me anyway..<g>
ebear
