venturevestor's Profile

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Re: New Presentation

With the us dollar strength, construction gets cheaper and cheaper.

No way Teck buys out Copper Fox. Copper Fox may sell but that isn't happening until Teck decides to move the project forward. Copper Fox would have to discount thier value too much to sell under the current circumstances. It costs Copper Fox nothing to wait and let Teck add value to the property, even to the point of arranging financing for construction. If Copper Fox does nothing they eventually end up with thier share of a producing mine. That is not a bad thing either.

almost 10 years ago
Re: Teck and Mining Overview

As for Fort Hills, you would have thought Teck would have figured out the grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence from their coal play. You can bet there are lots within Teck wondering what they are doing messing around with energy when they are good at minerals. Still, diversification isn't a bad thing and I don't know the returns from investment on Fort Hills.


As for the work program, I would expect that after reviewing the core and the mine plan for a year they would spend the winter doing trade-offs based on thier in-house knowledge to create a more profitable mining scenario. Copper Fox made an economic plan and Teck now has the chance to make a more profitable plan. This would lead into some geo-technical drilling and possibly some confirmation drilling next year as the mine plan is tweeked. I expect Teck did some district level exploration and this could lead to a minor drill program to confirm the future direction (way in the future) in which the project will be developed.


I would say however the most valuable thing Teck could do for the project would be to begin construction of a road to the property. It isn't that far and the design is complete. It is a big cost up front but would save 10s of millions of dollars having road access. It is quite a leap though for a large mining company to look past 1 year of budget to realize who much money they are bleeding over 5.


The road isn't cheap as there is a major bridge at the start on the Galore Road and I expect given the terrain in the area there would be a lot of rock cut. Guessing it would cost $250,000 to $300,000 per kilometer.


No matter what I don't see an official production decision by Teck in 2015 but I can see them working towards that decision. I can see a production decision in 2016.


Of course this is all conjecture on my part. It is based on my instincts more then any real information (which is in short supply right now).

almost 10 years ago
Teck and Mining Overview

Agree completely Teck is the future driver for CUU shareprice in hte short and medium term.


Other projects are down the road and will add long term value (although on share price Copper Fox has made almost a double on the Carmax Investment). Other projects will require cash to develope and cash in hand right now is worth more then you can get for developing minerals. It is cheaper to buy pounds in the ground then develope them. Stupid but true. It won't be this way forever. This phantom surplus in copper is going to evaporate and new production is non existant but that a couple years down the road.


Copper Fox is stuck with Teck as a partner. Normally this is a great situation as Teck really is a choice partner. Unfortunately thier forray into Coal is not working out all that well right now. As a corporation, strategically Teck (like all majors) is in consolidation mode to conserve cash. Basically a corporate care and maintenace program waiting to see what happens in the world. The development money they have has gone to Fort Hills (Which shows that senior managment still is leaning toward energy over metals for future cash flows). So long as they are spending large sums at Fort Hills I would say it is less likely Schaft Creek will be moved ahead significantly. The deposit isn't going anywhere and Teck can start moving the project forward when it suits Teck. That could be next year or in 5 years. Long and short of it is that Teck will be moving the project forward at some point but that sure doesn't help CUU shareholders today.


I sold off most of my CUU this spring becasue I didn't believe there was any news to drive the stock upwards (The Carmax deal has been an excellent development but didn't give CUU any love). I gambled that I would be able to pick it up later a lower prices and so far that gamble looks to be working out. With a spin the wheels program going on at Schaft, a getting to know you program at Van Dyke there just was going to be nothing exciting this year.


Now that this year is over however I believe there are positives coming for CUU. A new work program will be made for Schaft Creek in about 6 months which could materially move the project forward, the getting to know you phase of Van Dyke is done and a plan to create a mine plan and economic assessment can begin, and an updated resource is in the works for Eaglehead allowing for the economic assessments to begin.


Finally we are one year closer to the turning of the copper markets back towards recognized deficits.


I am back on the accumulation trail now. I will be looking to end up with more shares than I held at the end of 2013 by mid 2015.

almost 10 years ago
Re: Pumpers are gone

Glad to see someone has noticed Copper Fox isn't the only one getting hammered. There is no money in exploration companies. Can't raise money, can't attract investors right now. Look at the Colorado Resources boomarang story.

It may well be that Schaft Creek won't get developed in this go around. May indeed have to wait a few years for Copper Fox to get the value out of the property. On the positive side, Teck is operating the project now at no cost to Copper Fox. Teck is adding value to the property with every dime spent, every hole drilled, every engineering study conducted. That is a fact.


I wouldn't count on any share appreciation on this falls drilling. 10,000 meters is likely too small of an amount to prove much. The appreciation should come next spring when Teck commits to a real program to develope and explore at Schaft Creek. Make no mistake Teck will be operating at Schaft Creek next year as it is key to unlocking all of the deposits in the district (which I consider Galore creek as part of).


As for Copper Fox selling their interest in Schaft Creek, don't hold your breath, I don't believe there is anyone out there right now willing to pay what it is worth. Luckily Copper Fox is not in a position where they need to fire sale the asset. Copper Fox may well drift lower, I am trying to prepare myself for .20 emotionally just in case, as the market may just not believe that there is a quick return on their investment in CF.


Maybe the market is right, maybe Schaft creek will linger for a few years. At the end of the day though, the Copper Fox interest in Schaft Creek will sell for a few billion dollars. The question is basically if you are willing to wait or if you think you can make money elsewhere and jump back in for the payoff when the time is right.

My only concern is that I end up in a cash crunch and need to sell my shares at this or a further depressed level.

almost 11 years ago
Spin Off for discussion

So the plan as I understood it was to finish Schaft Creek, have a liquidity event, pay out and then roll the share back and do it again on another property.


So, markets have not allowed the liquidity event. 25% of Schaft isn't going to fetch a reasonable value in this market. I don't want my holdings of Schaft creek given away for millions when it is worth billions.


I also don't want my shares diluted with exploration expenses on another property. So the only way I can see going forward is to spin CUU2 off CUU leaving enough money in CUU to cover corporate expenses until an opportunity to vend Schaft comes along.


Then managment can roll back the shares and start building up the new properties. How would a company split the company say leaving 100 million shares in CUU1 and 300 million in CUU 2 (to be rolled back to 30 million). Would doing this wipe out value on the roll back or would the value ballance out? Or would it just make sence to split off CUU2 with 10 million shares and leave 400 million with CUU1


interested in what people think.

about 11 years ago
Canada Grant flight

When you went for your fly over did you go over any other projects in the area to see if they are drilling?

about 11 years ago
venturevestor
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