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Re: Fundamentals

Ipanema, glad to hear that my writing was useful to you and you were also adding. It was certainly cathartic for me to share my thought process.


While nothing would truly surprise me, I find it unlikely that something is NOT going to happen this coming week. My sense is something big IS about to happen.


I think we should remember we are dealing with multi-billionaires here from one of the fastest-growing, oil rich emerging markets. Finisky in fact through Intergeo and Polyus is actually directly partnered with THE richest man in all of Russia now, NJ Net's owner Prokohov. The thought that keeps coming to me is : Do these guys really need to penny pinch here? Or should they just secure the key asset to legitimize their growing "mid-tier."


I think it's unlikely the tiny blip up in market cap of CMM has achieved in anticipation would change their overall strategy. I am thinking however that since we have run up to .76, it might take off the table the lowball offer that values CMM at .90 and we might be looking at 1.00+ as the new lowest possible initial offer since .90 is really not a significant premium to .76 and .90 is guaranteed to be turned down by every retail shareholder that has any inkling of knowledge as to what their shares are fundamentally worth.


My guess is on or before March 8th this Tuesday something big will happen that will affect all CMM shareholders and make us the temporary center of the junior mining world. In most cases, this type of attention is bullish.


The big question is of course is exactly what is going to take place. The good news is we don't need to wait much longer to find out.


Cheers,


RE

over 13 years ago
Re: Tomorrow is the last day to get voting shares of CMM

Glad to see that is verified. I don't think voting or non voting rights will make any difference to the hoard of speculators that are bound to jump on board once the news is announced.


But for us longs who have been here a while it's quite an interesting date. Tomorrow looks to be the last day to be a fully "legit" shareholder of CMM.


Cheers!


RE

over 13 years ago
Tomorrow is the last day to get voting shares of CMM

Fantastic day today. We broke through a key level (.67) cleanly and now have no technical resistance to our 52 week high of .87.


If I am not mistaken, I believe that tomorrow (March 3rd) is the last day that shares eligible for voting for the special meeting can be obtained.


Voting is only for shareholders on record as of 3/8. If we subtract 3 business days for settlement that brings us to tomorrow 3/3.


Securities law is not my strength so feel free to chime in if I am mistaken.


Cheers,


RE

over 13 years ago
Why I'm buying

Like many of you, I've been going through every possible upcoming scenario in my head. I'm no psychic and there are many possibilities as to what is to come for sure. One thing I have decided on is, given that we are days away from some more clarity, I am going to be a BUYER every day.

Here is my highly condensed list of reasons why I’m adding.

1) During the chaos of the late 2008 credit crisis, it might be possible to "steal" a company like CMM for far less than fair value. With gold being the center of attention at at all-time highs, I don't believe this is the case now. Any offer for an asset like CMM is going to attract a lot of attention and not go un-noticed. This includes both attention from speculators, arbitrage seekers as Glorieux mentioned, as well as attention from the industry, peers, and majors.

2) Any offer made has to value CMM at a significant premium to the current trading price in order to be attractive and not laughed at. This limits any risk of buying prior to a pop while things have been steady and tame.

3) I can't imagine the audacity to make an initial offer that does not value CMM at least higher than the 52 week high of .87.We achieved .87 on the POTENTIAL of going from 20k yr production to 100k+, therefore it is common sense we deserve a premium to this now that we are on the verge of ACHIEVING this and the start-up risk is off the table.

4) The volume has been extremely thin recently, as clearly anyone selling given the circumstances, has to be either incredibly stupid or a doing so to keep a lid on the stock. Like many of you, I have a large holding in CMM already, and buying now helps fight any potential manipulators.I was also buying heavily prior to the closing of the PP when there was seemingly a limitless number of cheap shares and that also proved to be a temporary phenomena.

5)In the unlikely situation where CMM does not rise to well beyond the offer price, if the sense is the minority shareholders will vote "no" to a deal, the acquirers will likely go into the market and pick up shares that they can use to vote "yes" with. This puts a firm floor on the entire range between where we are now and the offer level.

6) The remaining CMM holders will not give in to an unacceptable offer. We have been here through thick and thin including a cease trade order, vacant CEO, delays, deadlines missed and everything else. We are here because of the outstanding value and fundamentals and massive discounted gap vs peers that ultimately has to be closed. If we were skittish we would already be out.


7) CMM share holders are also extremely connected.How many stocks have their own active board like Stockigloo and such an active board on Agoracom? We can organize and unite easily.Want us to merge with WTG? Show us the money! I don’t see any sizable assets or even a website for this entity that would justify their market cap. It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to figure that out. Clearly any type of merger would need to place a huge premium on CMM and a massive discount to WTG. We are connected and not going to be “fooled” out of our shares.

8) Ultimately, I believe in markets. Right now, we are in the tiny minority group that is "in the know" that something is about to happen.The low volume shows this.When this deal hits, it’s going to be covered as major news in the industry and is going to attract attention.There is likely going to bring in a sizeable volume of new players into the game speculating on what a fair value for us is.While it may take time, I believe the highly public nature of any transaction like this combined with the gold bullish market serves as protection against us not getting a fair deal.

over 13 years ago
Re: This is my guess as to the agenda

It's a gray area. There are so many loopholes that things like that can always get done even if not on paper you know? That is not enough IMO however to solve the issue. Dissident retail shareholders will still be a roadblock if the offer is too low.


RE

over 13 years ago
This is my guess as to the agenda

My guess is that the agenda would be to first bring together White Tiger and Century and market it as an immediate "mid-tier" With Century's 110k or so of forward yearly production and White Tiger's nominal additional production, they could reach 130-150k or so which would be enough to be considered a Mid-Tier. This entity would ideally now be given an upside revaluation by the market for being geographically diversified and having a billionaire-backed ownership / board. It would also fully cleanse CMM of the Peggy era "discount" through re-marketing the assets under a new name.


This is similar to what Endeavour Financial tried to do with bringing together Etruscan and Crew before they ran out of cash, gave in and sold out to Severstal and just decided they would essentially just become Etruscan.


If they are successful with bringing together CMM and WTG, they can either attempt to consolidate more juniors to market the entity as a growintg mid-tier on the path to becoming a major (1 mil+ in yearly production) or they might just choose to sell for a full mid-tier valuation to Polyus that has deep pockets.


The one thing with this likely agenda IMO is that without CMM, it can not work. CMM has both the assets and the immediate production to set off this chain of revaluations.


So it's in the power that be's best interests to not screw around too much and pay up and give us a good deal. There's no point in having a massive percentage of dissident shareholders while also alerting potential competitors who could try to steal or complicate the deal.


Of course,I have no inside info. I'm just speculating and could be completely wrong. This is just my guess based on my observation of how big money thinks.


RE

over 13 years ago
real_economics
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