Alternative no 1
In short, Roccos interpretation (if I can name it so), The Bape report is in line with QEC strategy, and in the short run (next 18 months or so), it will none or minor effect on QEC timetable. At least not during the Pilotprogramme.

Pro:
Communication with QEC IR supports this interpretation. They explicity spells it out.

Against:
Is it possible to have such an insight without getting forehand info, and also prior to what public authorities have their saying?

Alternative no 2
There exist a "De Facto Moratorium" agains fraccing.

Pro:
Common understanding of Bape report by Qubec public and newspaper

Against:
A shut down will hurt Quebec (foreign) investments and trust (maybe not a good one)

Personally I have a hard time to se the benefit for qec of blowing smoke, about this issue. If QEC was/will not be allowed to continue with the pilot programme such a release will eliminate all trust towards investors. They would not release it if they do not belive in it.

I think I lean over for Roccos alternative (and so a much more positive one)
Any other possible interpretation out there?

For what it is worth..

My mail, with Angela D (Investor relations) below. Sorry for not being more focused, with some what more "crispy" questions.

Hi
My name is xxx xxx, and I am a concerned (European) QEC shareholder.
After takeing in the information (mainly from reading English speaking Canandien papers) following the BAPE report, me and other shareholders, unfamiliar with the tone, norms and culture in Quebec politics, feel a considerable uncertainty of the interpretation and impact of the BAPE report.
Therefore I have some general questions to get a more iniated opinion.

If correct informed, among other things, the following is stated:

1. Fracking is halted, until enviromental issues are secured (which?, how? , to what degree?, if ever?)
2. Fracking will only take place/be authorized, if it is to pursue an "environment strategic evaluation"
3. An environment strategic evaluation will take 18-30 month to complete (?)
4. Cost for study (including "scentific drilling and fracking") is to be spent by industry?
5. Environment strategic evaluation may end up in a permanent stop for fracking of wells


To an "outsider" this seems to be a moratorium in effect (even so, technically there is none), when in comes to shalegas exploitation, using fracking techniques.

This is contradictory to mr Charest previous statements, were he seemed to fully support the Utica Gas industry, and among other things made assurances, that no moratorium will be put in place. Mr Charest, prevoiuse statements mitigating the political risk, was the assurance investors needed to have faith in QEC:s timetabels, and in the end a successful Gas Industry in the Quebec region. The BAPE report should lay down the rules, put uncertainties to rest.

The release of the BAPE report did not clarify/decrease (political) uncertainties, instead these uncertainties has increased (in my view).

The questions:
1. Can QEC comment upon (from QEC:s viewpoint) if the political risk have increased or decreased after the release of the BAPE report
2. Can QEC continue with plan (perform exploatory drilling and fracking) 2011 and 2012 as stated in timetables
4. Do QEC at this time see, any other major effects of the BAPE report (if the goverment will follow the recommendation given in the BAPE report)
5. In your opinion, is mr Charest, (and other member of goverment), only "blowing smoke" to oblige the "vulgus publicus".

(I will not get offended if you do not answer question no 5).

Any kind of answers, comments of above stated questions, consideration will be very much appreciated

Answer:

Hi xxxxx,

We are pleased with the fact that the government did not put in place a moratorium on exploration and is interested and moving forward with the development of a shale gas industry in Quebec.

We appreciate that in a jurisdiction with no oil and gas history, there is a need to understand the process and the strategic environmental evaluation will help the government in learning more about shale gas drilling and exploration.

Pilot wells/programs will be allowed during the strategic environmental evaluation and we will drill and frac our pilot program during this phase.

The strategic environmental evaluation fits in line with Questerre’s commercial development timeline.

With the size of the report (323 pages), we continue to review it and will provide additional comments when available.

My best,

Anela Dido
Investor Relations
Questerre Energy Corporation

As also being non-quebecian, and not understanding the political norms, values or culture, I have gravely underestimated the political risk.

I have spent several hours reading quebecian papers, trying to follow the puplic and political opinion, even so I completely missed the outcome of this "guessing-came", which still maybe is going to surprise us.

With such obviouse disadvantage, I have also started withdrawing.
Hopefully, a positive coming PM, pressrelease, guidance from QEC, can convince me to stay on board.

If not so, good luck to you all,

Can not see QEC, will have time to provide a guidance. It will be a slaughter......

I agree with you, without fraccing no study. But if industry can not decide upon location, number of levels and fracs, how can QEC make good progress according to timetable.

To put out an report clearly stating (according to the papers) that only minmal fraccing is to be made for carriing out enviromental studies, is an effective way to scare of industry and investors (very much needed to build up a working industry). Yes I agree that it contradicts mr Charest previouse statements. To my understanding, to unlock the major quantities Utica gas, fraccing is needed, even so this is explicit halted (other than for environmental studies).

I can not get a grip on this, to many questions unanswered. Curiouse to se what mr Binnion can make out of this (hopefully he will comment on his blog).

This seems to me to be "a moratorium" on shale gas (fracking), without spelling it out.
As being an non french speaking, European investor, I try to find some information, if there exist any "small text/paragraphs" which allows a way to circumvent the directives, opening up for "exploratory fracking/drilling". What I read in english speaking papers, I am afraid there is none.

I am sorry to say Bape and mr Charest did not look upon facts, instead took a political stand. I am afraid, that the political risk (for a major investor) is of such magnitude that they will not touch QEC.