orgprophet's Profile

Executive with experience in retail, consumer goods and heavy equipment manufacturing with a finance It and legal background. Unwilling to trust others to invest my efforts to their benefit. Seek other straight shooters interested in sharing/learning from each other.

orgprophet's Posts

"Happy New Year"/Permanent recession.

Wishing any lingering followers the best fortune in 2017 and beyond. 


 


Part 2.


North America especially Canada and the USA are now in a permanent recession. A fully mature tree has periods of growth thanks to seasonal feedings and pruning and proper management of that tree allows continued propserity.


Similarly the economy has growth despite being fully mature.  Little pruning and caring has occured over the last 10 years instead there have been supports and straps put into place in the economy.


How can we be sure that the economy was indeed fully mature? While a tree is growing more parts of it including the peripheral portions of it prosper. That was the case for the economy through the 60's and into the 70's. The cost of ensuring continued prosperity has become greater and greater. Meanwhile new trees are propsering, China and the eastern countries are the current growth engines for the wrold economy and have begun to rival the USA in GDP. The periphery of the east is on an upward trajectory of prosperity ... Can that be said for North America? Indeed it would appear now that the healthy branches (middle class) are being denied required stimulus in order to feed the trunk (1%). 


The changes in the east is great news for those in support of social justice ..lets face it North Americans have gotten fat while other nations starved for nearly half a century. Of course none of this could have happened without the investment from the 1%, but they have now raped and pillaged the forest and are bleeding every last drop of life giving sap for themselves.  Do they deserve it, probably not however the great fortune (supported by the hard work) of North Americans could never be morally justified either given that the wealth of the average North American has for the last 50 years exceeded by in excess of 10 times others around the world.


Its interesting as China slows down, their investment in the silk road is on the increase. this is in sharp contrast to North America who invested in other countries in the same way they did in their own country; maximize the exploitation of the the resources (including hiuman resources) and when no longer productive discard them at the minimum cost.


2017 will likely be a watershed year, if not this year within the next 5 we will see the new world order, but that new world is almost certain to be vastly different than envisioned.


Al the best in the coming year


Chauncey the gardener (AKA Orgy)


 


 


 

over 7 years ago
A chart and commentary I sent to a person I am tutoring

The S&P 500 is broad base measurement of the US equity(share) market. It does make sense that the value of companies should rise as productivity rises. The correlation from early 70's to about 95 remains pretty consistent ... interesting that there was no wild sway even during the Volker years of high teens low 20% interest rates (early 80's).


Greenspan began his tenure in 87 ... In the 3rd year of Clinton's 1st term we see the deviations of today begin ... Clinton was loosening bank regulations and redefining the definition of unemployment.


It spiked back down for the dot com bubble to a normalish location, but Greenspan's low interest rate policy caused a quick return upwards before he handed the reigns over to the Bernank .... GFC took em down and insane monetary easing has taken them back ... Certainly is this is completely counter-intuitive to the 40000 Dow, however when you bring in the hyperinflation argument ... who knows what will occur ....


The gap between prices and productivity once again demonstrates


1) Yield chasing


2) The irrelevance of fundamentals


3) the raping of the little guy


4) An imminent risk of market crash, confidence loss and complete destabilization, Ho mcuh longer and further the can can be kicked is any body's guess.

https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/when-bad-news-becomes-bad-news-again/tabid/88/a/1319/default.aspx?mc_cid=a52bcb1926&mc_eid=ff2e773055

orgy

about 8 years ago
Assault of the common man

History has taught us two things.


1) Over many centuries we have seen the wealthy strive to maximize their ability to extract as much benefit from the labour of the common man as possible. Whether it was Egyptian slaves, Or Black American slaves, whether it was serfdom or the caste system their is abundance evidence to support the notion the wealthy are happy to gain a disproptionate benefit from the sweat of others.


2) History repeats itself


the latest Assault.


As social constructs developed allwoing the comman man to retain a greater portion of the benefit of their effort the wealthy have developed more insidious ways to surreptitiously gain a disproptionate benefit from the sweat of others.


Case in Point


Zero interest rate policy.


Impacts


1) Banks borrow money at lower amount but do not lend at a correspondingly lower amount ... who benefits ... Bank owners (the wealthy)


2) People on fixed incomes no longer can find safe returns on their savings, so either re-enter the workforce, (more supply reduces labour cost ... who benefits the wealthy, who loses the common man).


3) people seek greater return on investment and take greater risks ... who benfits the wealthy ... fees, commissions, and overall better undertsanding of the markets means the winners are not the common man.


4) More borrowing, who benefits, the wealthy who lend.


The fractional reserve system


1) Banks have only to keep a small portion of the deposits of the common man available to repay. Banks can as a resuly generate credit and makemore money ... who benefits the wealthy.


2) If a bank fails; who pays, the taxpayers, and new legislation means the depositers bailrtheir deposits in as well .... Who profits the wealthy!


at whose expense ... the common man.


We have laws preventing the physically strong from taking from the physically weak, but if anything the current laws are increasing such that the economically strong can take further from the economically weak. A new form of slavery has arisen and it is called western economics.


Debt levels dictate that the current economic system is not only unviable, that the wealthy will benefit from the collapse.


Where are the outraged people ... busy on their mobile devices looking for pokemon.


Anyone thinking that mankind is moving forward are living in a dream world.


This said it best (warning graphic language and concepts presented)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q&feature=related


orgy

about 8 years ago
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