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Aside from large debt, mis-management, and stock dilution, I believe there is a stronger underlying problem lingering that is really starting to impact the SP.
Dispite claims by management of state of the art technology, repeatability, and future production goals, POD1 is consistently underperforming.
Did the curtailment of production back in 2009 affect the level of future production? Will Algar repeat the production performance of POD1? What happens if a future curtailment is required? Do they just lose money hand over fist to keep production up or do they curtail production at the cost of future production levels?
10,000 bpd minus 7300 bpd is a whopping 2700 bpd. This is a huge problem that needs to be addressed. We're coming on almost two years after the curtailment and production levels are still not where they need to be.
If we can assument that POD1 is used as a model, we can assume that management's goal of 50,000 bpd by 2012 will really be only 36,500 bpd. Assuming 360 days of operation and an average netback of $20/barrel, this would amount to almost $100 million dollars of profit per year. There goes the money to pay back the debts.
I believe stock holders are due honest answers regarding production levels of POD1, Algar, and future PODS.
-Oilman
Brian,
Your posts puzzle me. You continually bash management and the performance of CLL. What interest do you still have in the company? Management is what it is. I doubt they are going to change. If you feel that they are so inept then why stick around You offer nothing of value to this forum anymore. Your post are getting real annoying.
I don't say this because you are just providing a pessimitic view, but because you provide a pessimitic view with no upside or value.
Can we return to discussing relevant topics?
For example, has anyone discussed how these power outages are affecting the goal of maximizing production? As you remember, the curtailment of production in March 2009 seemed to affect production levels. Before the shutdown, it appeared that design production was close to being achieved. Since the shutdown, Algar has not been able to break the 8,500 barrel level. What are the power outages doing to the pumps? Are they still able to inject steam during the outages? Are they experiencing brownouts are constant low voltage conditions? This can have a seriously damaging affect on their motors.
I'm sorry if this post is a personal attack. I just feel that you used to provide a benefit to this board. I'm not sure if you've just become so bitter that you need to take it out on something.
-Oilman
Sorry numbers didn't come out too well.
Bottom line is OPC has 2.5 times the debt that CLL does, but 1.5 times less shares outstanding.
Connacher has a proven track record of positive earnings. OPC has a proven track record of losses. 2Q this year they are already down $202 Million.
I keep hearing how bad CLL's longterm debt is. I decided to compare it to a very similar company. I was amazed at the comparison. Either CLL is drastically underpriced or OPC is drastically overpriced. Values are approximate. Only things that I see that are favorable for OPC are their 2P/3P reserves and their shares outstanding. I can't quite figure out why an unproven company that is losing money hand over fist is priced higher than a well hedged company that has a proven track record of positive earnings and success.
Anybody want to add a third company to this comparison?
ConnacherOpti Canada
LTD $887M $2,215M
ShrsOut 428M 283M
Mrkt Cap.$528M $461M
'09 BPOe/d Bitumen 6,274 6,300
2010 Est. BPOe/d12,5008,750
Of Bitumen
1P.177mmbbl190 mmbbl
2P379 mmbbl710 mmbbl
3P462 mmbbl1114 mmbbl
2009 Revenue422M143M
2009 Earnings26M-306M
EPS0.08-128
2008 Earnings-27M-477M
EPS-.13-2.43
2007 Earnings41M151
EPS0.20.77
2009 Avg. SOR3.75-6
1Q 2010 Rev118M50M
1Q 2010 Earnings5.5M-50M
EPS.01-.18
2Q 2010 Rev YTD.?111M
2Q 2010 Earnings YTD.?-202M
EPS?-.72
Steaming takes a couple of months.
There's nothing new to take pictures of.
Compared to some other companies in my portfolio, I'm very happy with the amount of information that CLL shares.