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Re: Happygolfer: How to value a junior?

Well, when you put it that way, i feel better already. By the way I am very impressed with the Santa Fe deal, really it may be one of the most under the radar and shrewd acquisitions in the junior space that we'll see. The Santa Fe deal provides a producing mine while we muddle through the permitting process in Yellowknife. If all goes well the YGP will come on line as the Santa Fe mines reach their peak production at which point we'll have something really to feel good about. If this in fact becomes a reality the full recognition of Tyhee's value will be realized and add to that other unknown M&A deals in the near future and I like our prospects very much with Tyhee.


Baires, thanks goes out to you for keeping the spirit of our site going through the dark times of the past few years. I check in pretty regularly and I enjoy all the information and discussion here. Here's to better times ahead.


p.s. the Santa Fe interview with Pierce Carson was notable for many reasons but one thing stuck with me. He said they have had to keep costs down out of necessity because of lack of working capital, so they know how to extract ore cheaply already. Keeping operating costs down will be important and as Jim sinclair points out, many of the big players in the mining space have spent lavishly in the past with little regard for shareholders.

over 10 years ago
Rules of thumb to assess junior mining companies

Here is an interesting article written in a realistic and un-biased tone. Are there any red flags in Tyhee? I would like to know folks opinions on this.


http://www.kitco.com/ind/Cook/2014-01-24-Rules-of-Thumb-for-Junior-Mining-Speculators-A-Light-at-the-End-of-the-Tunnel.html


On another note, i've been following Martin Armstrong regarding the dynamics of capital flows and he has been right on the mark the past 2 years. Gold will have it's time in the near future especially after October 2015 but maybe not quite yet. Only when gold becomes a preferable place to put capital to work or protect it will the uptrend in gold price begin again. Right now there are better perceived places to allocate capital although the recent emerging market chaos might be the beginning of the trend change, time will tell. Manipulation is certainly going on and with comex February options expiry this week it's not a surprise the price has had downward pressure to avoid strike price redemptions for those concerned. It seems there are a lot of factors that can dictate the short term price action of gold but in the long run the "invisible hand" and natural market forces will prevail. Also combined with this is the spot on technical work of Louise Yamada regarding the price of gold. Her monthly updates have been very accurate and she is still calling for possible lower prices in the coming months based on technicals. I'm patiently waiting for her to give the all clear signal on a resumption of the gold bull market based on the charts. Of course nothing is fool proof but i believe these two sources of information will serve us well in coming months and years in following events in the precious metals space. Also js mineset is a great web site to find information. I went to see Jim Sinclair speak at the Palmer House in Chicago last year and his analysis of our current economic predicament in the U.S. was riveting. The new MyRA plan that President Obama mentioned in his SOU was predicted by Sinclair and speaks to the subtle ways government will get at more American's money. From an investment standpoint it might be one of the worst ideas i've ever heard and will ultimately hurt the regular folk it is supposed to help. A 1.5% return on a U.S. government bond when the fed is trying to create 2-3% inflation, wow. Just another way for the government to get at our money like they did with social security, the very idea of this MYRA is really an admission that there is nothing left in social security and the government needs a new source of revenue to fund the debt spending. Also a way to sell more government debt when no one else will buy it, unfortunately the bond market is headed for a crash just to make matters worse. Finally, i just finished reading David Stockman's book "The Great Deformation" a 700+ page history of the fed and it's policies. This guy knows what he's talking about as he worked for Reagan in the Budget Office and he's seen things from the inside. Anyhow, just a few thoughts on things as i haven't posted on here for a while and i look forward to hearing commentary on the rules of thumb for juniors.


That's all for now.


Pat

over 10 years ago
Re: Reasons for Bang the Close

Gents, haven't posted for quite a while but i've been faithfully lurking in the shadows taking in the good, the bad and the ugly postings of this forum. Here's something that came to me from Sprott you all may enjoy reading. Keep up the good work and I remain calm as i hold firmly to my 310,000 shares of Tyhee, cost basis of roughly 17 cents american.


Regards, Pat.


Weaker Resource Companies Could Be Culled,

Believes Sprott's Angeli

Odds are good your natural resource portfolio lost money in the past 18 months. Natural resource markets have been in a rut. Market prices have been in decline. We expected natural resource companies to exhibit leverage to commodity prices, but they drastically underperformed as a whole.

The natural resource market is hurting. Can it fix itself? Can it "lick its wounds" and move on?

For answers to this topic, I turn to Eric Angeli , Investment Executive at Sprott Global. He has worked at large financial institutions, like Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns, before entering the natural resource field. Part of what he brings to the Sprott Global team is his research into what companies are due for takeovers or mergers. Eric sees three major themes for the upcoming year: bifurcation, greater market efficiency, and a re-emphasis on discoveries.

His first point is that the current market stress will break the companies that are not viable. Their demise will mean more money available to the good companies. One reason for concern during the bull market of 2009 and 2010 was that investors were easily enticed by company representatives hawking stocks to the public, even when the underlying projects were not credible. Now, the money that was squandered in ill-advised projects is gone. The markets have gotten much less frivolous about who they will trust with their investments. Sooner or later, these companies will likely go "no bid," or be taken off the stock exchanges altogether. As fewer companies compete for capital, good companies backed by sound resource projects should be in great demand. While the bad companies go under, we should expect the market to uplift the good ones.

Eric's second point is that the industry itself is coming to terms with the paradigm shift in natural resources. This manifests itself mainly through a degree of capitulation among issuers, more sensible acquisitions from majors, and a resurgence of mergers and acquisitions between resource companies. Many of the natural resource companies in existence today saw a stock price peak around 2009 or 2010. Since then, many have seen a declining market price. They knew that sooner or later, they would have to issue new stock if they wanted to continue to exist. But none wanted to finance in 2012, as they were still looking back with melancholy to the bull market days, and believing that they could hold out long enough to see an upswing in their stock price. Of course, this reversal never came. Now, these companies are becoming more desperate for capital, and they are beginning to offer terms more favorable to investors. This is why there were very few private placements in 2012, but we expect this to change, and in fact are already seeing the change.

Just like investors, majors made many poor decisions during the bull market years. As a result, the industry has written off 50 billion dollars in failed mergers and acquisitions*. In order to recoup and placate their shareholders, majors decided to make only "accretive" transactions. That is, instead of buying reserves requiring millions of dollars and several years to develop, they bought projects that could immediately add cash flow to their balance sheet. In addition, we should see a new wave of mergers and acquisitions. "As capital markets dry up, companies will have to get more creative to finance their projects," says Eric. "Expect to see companies reaching across the aisle to secure a deal." Amalgamation will make the industry more efficient. As multiple companies combine into one, duplicative management teams will be eliminated. Cash-poor companies will look for a partner who can finance them at lower cost.

Eric's third theme is that discoveries will be important in 2013. Part of the reason for a poor overall market in 2012 was a lack of new discoveries, so speculators didn't have much to excite them. Those who deliver are still being well-rewarded. In 2012, Reservoir Minerals, for example, went from 50 cents to 4 dollars. Papillon rose from 60 cents to 2 dollars. Africa Oil increased from 2 to 11 dollars. As Eric stated, "ten-fold moves like these are the reason we got into resource investing in the first place, and that reason still holds true."

So, according to Eric, the current downturn in natural resources is mostly because of the poor decisions made by natural resource management teams and investors alike. What we are experiencing is a normal downswing, and we mustn't let our fear create even more pain for ourselves.

Until Next Time,

Henry Bonner

over 11 years ago
Great analysis of current junior miner malaise

Take a look at this article i found on JS mineset, i think he's telling us to accumulate some more tyhee at bargain prices. By the way the voalatility index for the S&P is very low right now, a sure sign things are not alright and about to turn. Regards, Pat.


http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Myrmikan_Update_2012_08_14.pdf

about 12 years ago
Re: Usual Nonsense

Cinderella Man, i bought 2 lots of 10,000 shares in the morning, both of which were filled in less than a minute thru my fidelity investment account. When i checked the yahoo ticker a little while later, sure enough it had 20,000 shares traded and the price i bought was .081 and it raised the ask to .09. By the afternoon, the bottom fell out of the market obviously and share price was below my buy in price. As far as i can tell tyhee trades have been accurate down in the US as reported by yahoo.


Regards, Pat

over 12 years ago
more info from Rick Rule

Here are two questions from Rick Rule regarding the vetting process for a junior resource company. It seems to me Tyhee is lacking in the promotional department, although could be waiting for feasibility study. Maybe there is an element of ownership that doesn't want the attention just yet, i don't know. Enjoy, Pat.




Question 6. "Who owns this company? How much did they – or will they – pay for it, and when can they sell it?"


Make the company explain its capitalization history. If there were escrow or founders’ shares – shares issued for $0.01 to early insiders –

who got them for what service and when will they be free to trade them? Determine at what price every financing has taken place. Is the stock from those financings already free trading, or can it hit the market later to depress share



prices? How many options and warrants are outstanding? At what price can holders exercise them?

In other words, is the price asked now reasonable, given what others have paid? If the company recently issued shares at a price well



below current market, they made an unflattering public pronouncement about their opinion of the shares’ value. If insiders bought at prices well above current market that might tell a different story.




Make sure management owns LOTS of stock and stands to get rich if they make you money. Self-interest is the market’s sharpest spur. Successful speculators back owners, not employees.



What about promotion? Question 7. "Who else will you tell this story to, how will you tell them, and when?"

Promotion often makes the difference between success and failure. Promotion is crucial in capital-intensive businesses because it raises subsequent financing with less dilution and increases liquidity and share prices. Since exploration companies seldom pass out gold watches to 30-year shareholders, you want increasing share prices.

Make the company – preferably its promoter – detail its promotional plan. Who is the audience? What is the message? Who is the messenger? Do the three mix? What is the promotional budget? Is that sufficient? How will the promoter raise additional capital? At what price and from whom?

Companies must budget at least $150,000 annually for promotion – sad but true. At least two management road shows, through Toronto, New York and London should be scheduled annually and one yearly tour of the company’s focus properties organized for analysts. North American companies that don’t appear at the "gold shows" are almost automatic losers.





Institutional investors finance exploration but retail investors provide market liquidity. Promoting to only one constituency is a flawed strategy. Promoting to retail investors should take into account that Canada has 27 million people and the US has 260 million. Will they spend their money in markets that have the money?



Most Canadian companies know almost nothing about US securities regulations. Promoting in the US is against American regulations, which are getting rougher and tougher. Make sure that the promoter knows and complies with federal and state laws. If the promoters are not aware of these regulations and don’t have concrete plans for complying, forget about their



Pin down the promoter

Who is the audience?

What is the message?

Who is the messenger?

Do the three mix?

What is the promotional budget?

Is that sufficient?

How will the promoter raise additional capital?

At what price and from whom?



stocks. In fact, if they don’t have plans to list on NASDAQ or AMEX, greatly discount the rest of their promotional plans.



over 12 years ago
happygolfer
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