goingsolo's Profile

goingsolo's Posts

Still Short

And I will continue to further my position if the shares rise above $0.45.

almost 13 years ago
Re: CLL sesitivity to Oil price

Rebels, you don't get it. Here's an example with easy numbers to help you. Assume oil is $100 then drops to $80 and royalties are fixed at 10%. Also assume capex ect is $50/bbl.


At $100 your royalties are $10, and at $80 oil royalties are $8/bbl.


So your NETBACK is 100-10-50 = $40 for $100 oil


80-8-50 = $22 for $80 oil.


So even though your royalty expense dropped $2/bbl, you're still out the money.


I haven't cashed out but have added more to my position. I would have been smart to cover last week but I didn't think we'd see this wave of optimism in the markets. Regardless, CLL is losing money and can't exist forever so I will be patient and continue to sell shares (short the stock) when we see bumps like we did at $0.40 today.

almost 13 years ago
Re: CLL sesitivity to Oil price

The decrease in royalties do no offset the decrease in bitumen prices. Royalties need to be payed regardless of whether or not the company is profitable, so in this case is costing the shareholders precious dollars either way. Once they are done depreciating their assets the royalties will climb significantly.


Nice bounce in the oil price. I sold another 35,000 shares today.

almost 13 years ago
Re: bankruptcy or takeover

Takeover is not likely to happen as the assets aren't great (tiny money-losing refinery that nobody wants, sub-par production reserviors and mediocre reserves), and capital will be held back in an environment like this.


Plus, if they do go belly up one would be able to acquire these assets much cheaper at the auction, so why not wait.


Rebels, I'm short 70k shares, so covering won't be a problem with the 4+million volume. I am not here to downtalk CLL as I have already made money. My intention is to sound the alarm bells for all of you!


BMK, I don't actually dislike you, I just found you to be really stubborn with me.

almost 13 years ago
Re: Why SP Falling

Rebels, at the very least you should stop the bleeding and sell you shares.


Martin, NAV means nothing when companies are selling assets to survive.

almost 13 years ago
Re: Why SP Falling

Rebels,


I do not have the time and nor do I care to read all of the nonsense posts that are exchanged on these forums. Especially Brian's... that guy makes me irate. So regardless of what you may think I am not Jurek, sorry man. I do give Jurek credit for his posts as they are usually quite accurate.


You keep saying that CLL pays the bills and earns a small profit. Take a closer look at shareholder's equity and try and explain for yourself how this 'profit' comes about from quarter to quarter. Things like currency gains do not count as they are financial trickery.


If oil ends up at less than $75 for a prolonged period then CLL will cease to exist in it's current form. The shareholders will be wiped out and the company will be recapitalized under a new name, cleaner balance sheet, and hopefully better management.


You might call me greedy but like you, I am only in this to make money. If you are losing money on this company I'd encourage you to ask yourself what you're still holding on for? They don't have the money to grow (anyone who partners with them will get the better end of the bargain), they are selling off assets to survive, have an risked EV of less than $0.20, and the macro environment is... booming? Nope. Sounds like an exciting opprotunity to me.

almost 13 years ago
goingsolo
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