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I haven't lost a cent in weeks.
... and ... it has been doing wonders for our 50 day moving average :)
I don't know about the rest of you ... but I have kind of gotten to like the price action on PLE over the last couple of weeks. Perhaps he should have pulled this paper work trick just around this time last year.
Thanks for the correction Crowlee. You are correct in saying that the worst I could do will depend on the price of DIB on date that the deal goes through.
Given that the exchange ratio translates into 2% (or 2c per dollar value of DIB shares) ... there is the risk that the DIB shares could be lower than 3.00 on the transaction date ... so 6c is not the worse that I could do. I guess it is one of the risks ... but ... right now PLE shares are priced as if DIB shares were worth 2.00. You could either consider that to be negative risk … or a measurement of the risk that the deal will not go through.
To your second concern ... what if PLE shareholders bolt after the deal. I don't think that it is that big of a concern. DIB has about 142 million shares out at the moment. The PLE deal will only add about 4.5 million (about 3%) to their float. In addition ... as we approach the deal date the arbitrage will be reduced to near zero. Therefore selling PLE the day before or DIB a day later will result in similar amounts.
Neo,
They (DIB) are planning to pay with their shares ... so there is no real out of pocket costs (and negligible dilution for their existing shareholders).
I am not sure if their shareholders appreciate just how big of a deal this is for them (a bit too good in my opinion).
This isn't about finding gold (and silver, copper, lead, zinc ... and more) . This is all about how much of it is there (and the answer is either a lot ... or an awful lot) and how soon could they possibly get into production.
In my opinion the whole purpose for offering 6c is so that they can cap the price (in the event that PLE gets the go ahead to proceed). All it will take to change the situations if for investors to over-run the 6c barricade and push the price above their offer. If the price starts moving up to 8, 9, 10, (who knows how high) ... then there isn't going to be a lot of interest in a 6c offer.
This one won't be over until it is over ... I wouldn't mind having a chance to work with DIB ... but the current offer doesn't exactly do it for me. ... I plan to hang tight.
DIB Stock Price History
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIB.V&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=1011-03-19&id=p23778377769
Late in the fall of 2008 when PLE hit a low of 2.5c DIB hit a low of 28c.
PLE Stock Price History
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PLE.V&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=1011-03-19&id=p15457065203
There is no question that this deal is a real win for DIB shareholder (a real no brainer for them ... particularly at this juncture in time).
I am not sure how I feel.
I would definitely be relieved to be associated with a more solid company and management team. But the timing of this deal seems a little off (but I guess that is true for most things in life)
If you though (like I did) that PLE would at least hit 8c after the meeting (equal to 4.00 DIB) then you might have wanted to hold off. I am sure that DIB saw it the same way and that is why we are looking at 6c offer today (actually more like 5.8c today .... but that will change from day to day).
I am clearly not a rocket scientist (as evidenced by the fact that I own shares in PLE) ... but this looks a lot more like a 1/2 price sale than an offer with a premium.
Nevertheless, I am not saying that this is a bad deal ... I just think that I might have to mull this over a bit more before I can say if I like the deal or not.