gdan01's Profile

gdan01's Posts

I'm Still Liking the Price Action

I haven't lost a cent in weeks.


... and ... it has been doing wonders for our 50 day moving average :)


http://scharts.co/IYzufi

over 12 years ago
Re: Checking SEDAR

I don't know about the rest of you ... but I have kind of gotten to like the price action on PLE over the last couple of weeks. Perhaps he should have pulled this paper work trick just around this time last year.

http://scharts.co/IYzufi

over 12 years ago
Re: Am I holding out for a higher price - Yes

Thanks for the correction Crowlee. You are correct in saying that the worst I could do will depend on the price of DIB on date that the deal goes through.

Given that the exchange ratio translates into 2% (or 2c per dollar value of DIB shares) ... there is the risk that the DIB shares could be lower than 3.00 on the transaction date ... so 6c is not the worse that I could do. I guess it is one of the risks ... but ... right now PLE shares are priced as if DIB shares were worth 2.00. You could either consider that to be negative risk … or a measurement of the risk that the deal will not go through.

To your second concern ... what if PLE shareholders bolt after the deal. I don't think that it is that big of a concern. DIB has about 142 million shares out at the moment. The PLE deal will only add about 4.5 million (about 3%) to their float. In addition ... as we approach the deal date the arbitrage will be reduced to near zero. Therefore selling PLE the day before or DIB a day later will result in similar amounts.

over 12 years ago
Am I holding out for a higher price - Yes

We are just completing a long painful consolidation in the gold sector (particularly in the juniors shares)


This consolidation seems to have taken on a lot of the characteristics of May 2005 ... but by many measures it is more extreme.






Here is my thinking on price.


Assuming that the the shares for most PM companies go up from here (if you disagree that is fine ... but we are currently in the extreme zone in the PM sector ... so I doubt that we can stay down much longer ... it could last for several more weeks but I doubt we are looking at months)


Assuming that the senior rise first and the juniors lag by several weeks to a few months.


Assuming that DIB shares are currently depressed (like all juniors)


Assuming that the rise in the ventures exchange is typical (after this kind of consolidation ... typical is in the range of 100%)


Assuming that DIB will want to do the deal for PLE (and no matter how you look at it it ... it does make sense)


Assuming that the successful acquisition of PLE enhances the value of DIB (and even more so if there is a deal in place with the locals governments)


Knowing that $1.00 of DIB = 2c PLE (as per the deal)


Then


The worst I should expect to do is 6c for PLE (based on the deal). So that is 50% over todays price.


A double for DIB (to $6.00 / 12c PLE) would not be abnormal based on the normal Ventures bounce out of these kind of extremes. And that price should be further supported (or enhanced) by the acquisition of PLE.


Therefore I am assuming that the upside potential in the next 8-12 months for PLE shareholders is 200% (4c to 12c). And that the downside risk is limited to the current price (and that risk can be mitigated to some degree).


Putting all of that together tells me that I will be holding out for a higher price (I might consider selling now if I was offered a premium over 6c ... but it would have to be a pretty good premium).



Yes, I will be holding out for a higher price … but I think that DIB (and PLE) essentially know that that higher price is already baked into the cake.

over 12 years ago
Re: DIB Stock History -gdan01

Neo,


They (DIB) are planning to pay with their shares ... so there is no real out of pocket costs (and negligible dilution for their existing shareholders).


I am not sure if their shareholders appreciate just how big of a deal this is for them (a bit too good in my opinion).


This isn't about finding gold (and silver, copper, lead, zinc ... and more) . This is all about how much of it is there (and the answer is either a lot ... or an awful lot) and how soon could they possibly get into production.


In my opinion the whole purpose for offering 6c is so that they can cap the price (in the event that PLE gets the go ahead to proceed). All it will take to change the situations if for investors to over-run the 6c barricade and push the price above their offer. If the price starts moving up to 8, 9, 10, (who knows how high) ... then there isn't going to be a lot of interest in a 6c offer.


This one won't be over until it is over ... I wouldn't mind having a chance to work with DIB ... but the current offer doesn't exactly do it for me. ... I plan to hang tight.

over 12 years ago
DIB Stock History

DIB Stock Price History


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIB.V&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=1011-03-19&id=p23778377769


Late in the fall of 2008 when PLE hit a low of 2.5c DIB hit a low of 28c.


PLE Stock Price History


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PLE.V&p=D&st=2000-01-01&en=1011-03-19&id=p15457065203


There is no question that this deal is a real win for DIB shareholder (a real no brainer for them ... particularly at this juncture in time).


I am not sure how I feel.


I would definitely be relieved to be associated with a more solid company and management team. But the timing of this deal seems a little off (but I guess that is true for most things in life)


If you though (like I did) that PLE would at least hit 8c after the meeting (equal to 4.00 DIB) then you might have wanted to hold off. I am sure that DIB saw it the same way and that is why we are looking at 6c offer today (actually more like 5.8c today .... but that will change from day to day).


I am clearly not a rocket scientist (as evidenced by the fact that I own shares in PLE) ... but this looks a lot more like a 1/2 price sale than an offer with a premium.


Nevertheless, I am not saying that this is a bad deal ... I just think that I might have to mull this over a bit more before I can say if I like the deal or not.

over 12 years ago
gdan01
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