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chinagoldbug's Posts

Re: for comparison - not usual

Respectfully Sculpin, the article you referenced noted that the company drilled SUBSEQUENT holes, not INITIAL holes to delineate the outer boundaries of the ore zone once they found it with the INITIAL drilling.


In the case of SLI, there is nothing wrong with saying that the intention was to hit the ore but instead they hit what appears to be the outer edge and based on that knowledge reinterpreted where to drill.


The company has good reason to believe there is quite a bit of gold to be found given the historical trenching and bulk sample results. However, it is not served well by "spinning" the results or having folks try to spin them for them.


It is what it is. They drilled it, didn't get what they expected (at least as released to date) then interpreted what they found to drill further. It is the exact same procedure that every mining company follows. Until they release more results showing why the tonnage and grade reflected in the current market cap is justified, they will continue to slide and could easily hit $0.30 - $0.40 (historical support level). Of course, if they release one good bonanza hole, it could spike right back up.


Given the history here, I would think that we would see a volume spike with a large price spike on no news that would be a bell cow to anyone watching that news was about to hit. Until then, it will probably be ugly given the lack of confidence in the current shareholder base.


Not bashing, just reality.

over 12 years ago
Re: Leaks - early selling

1. Just because selling doesn't show up on the insider reports doesnt mean that someone with privileged inside info didn't sell.

2. Why exercise options now? Buying in the marketplace shows confidence. Exercising options usually means they have sold to do so. Were they about to expire? The CEO bought at $1.80 because she sold enough to buy them. If I could sell then replace with a share plus an option I would do it every time as well!

Bottom line, someone knew prior to the masses and capitalized on it. How did they get the info? The "rushed" release was probably forced because the share volume spiked and the price cratered without warning prompting securities officials to require explanation.

Regarding the drilling, NO COMPANY would drill the perimeter first. They may drill shallow targets and when the results aren't as expected go back and analyze the geological info and determine they are near the edge of a target or structure but rest assured the intention every time is to hit the bonanza targets.

What percentage of these drills were above the ovoid vs actually in the ovoid? That is the real question.

over 12 years ago
Re: Questions about drilling results

Respectfully, you don't "drill on the perimeter then go in" to build anticipation or anything else. NO COMPANY WOULD EVER DO THIS.


Drilling is an inexact science. They take their best guess then drill it. They interpret those results then drill again. Proving up a resource takes NUMEROUS drill holes, not just a couple. NO ONE is going to buy the company, make a low ball offer, etc without substantially more than has been completed here.


The best thing to happen is for folks to get proper expectations in their heads regarding the stage of development and what is needed to attract any potential suitors. Look at any junior that is run by executives that formerly worked with a major and it is all the same exact game plan.


1. Do the geo ground work (already done here)


2. Drill aggresively (not really so much here but it is building)


3. Inform shareholders of the plan (not by a mile here)


4. Keep them informed (wink, wink, nod, nod isn't what I am referring to)


5. Continue to build value based on metrics and facts vs hype and innuendo. That's what leads to big buyouts vs 70% crashes in valuation in a week's time.


It's ok to be "long" and demand accountability and transparency. It is not too much to ask of management if there is "far more to this than most realize" to provide some guidance to add clarity to the plan to maximize the value of that "far more".


We haven't seen the "clarification" or the location of the holes becuase they probably were dead in the middle of the anomaly. And that isnt' necessarily a bad thing as the targeted area is huge and the geos on site will adapt the drilling after every run to more accurately target what the testing indicates is there.


I would love to see an update that not only justifies the current $115mm market cap but shows to the very large number of investors who are still watching this closely why that number is undervalued.

My humble opinion only.

over 12 years ago
Re: 5000 acres - valuation

Doesn't the fact that the company has only explored a tiny fraction of the property highlight the issue raised by some here that the valuation of the company relative to its stage of development is a bit aggressive? And further highlight the critical need of management to communicate the information begged for so many times in this and other forums such as location of holes, drill plan, etc?

Looking back over the trading it looks like a select few were privy to the results and sold prior to the masses to reflect a more realistic valuation given the results and stage of development. Now the market is trying to find equilibrium but for that to occur the company must communicate information that allows investors to make objective estimates of valuation.

That doesn't mean the company does not have a world class deposit, it just means at this stage they haven't demonstrated those facts although they have released several bits of info that lend at least some credibility to that theory. That's why it is still trading at a $115mm valuation vs a $20mm.

There are those who fall in love with a CEO, company, directors etc and if that works for them that's great as that type of investor is critically needed. But having investors whose only love is money, who ask critical questions, and who cuss cajole and encourage management to provide foundational information justifying valuation objectives isn't a bad thing either.

Just my opinion.

over 12 years ago
Front running - Criminal

It is abundantly apparent that information was known and traded on prior to a release. 1.5 million shares traded in the days leading up to the release and no measure of explanation can justify. Blatant trading on insider information. Has nothing to do with the strength of the company or anything else. Select individuals were able to sell prior to a market release of bad (depending on your interpretation) news.

It is sad that what looks like a good property is surrounded by this activity and I would hope that Canadian shareholders would be quick to report as everyone involved with the exclusion of a select few were taken advantage of.

over 12 years ago
Re: Anonymous selling

Sculping asked the question regarding Friday's trading. As a retired broker, here is your answer.


1. Anon is used by multiple houses for many different reasons. Many larger investors and houses use Anon by default.


2. The probability that there is manipulaiton to any scale, the Chinese are driving it down, someone is trying to scare the market, there is a vast right wing / left wing consipiracy, or a host of other theories is virtually nil.


3. You have a stock in SLI that trades at a very high valuation relative to its peer group and stage of development.


4. You have an investor base that constantly needs "news" to keep the hope alive, the story going, the momentum going, etc.


5. Because of reasons 2-5, you have volatility. A lot of it. Since you don't have any major institutions following you or big shareholders, you easily have days like Friday.


6. The large trading at the end of the day was either a) capitulation by a larger shareholder; b) someone who transferred brokers where the new broker was "cleaning up the portfolio" to reallocate to the stocks he follows, or c) a margin call. It felt like "c" but that opinion and $10 will still only get you a small coffee at Starbucks. It looked like forced selling by a house at the end of the day.


The stock price of a company gets "manipulated" when the company is about to do a private placement and prospective investors sell on the open market to participate in the PP (as has been done here on multiple occasions). The company is no where near a buyout in its development and I would be quite surprised if they would even entertain an offer at this standpoint. Why sell before you have any real idea what you have?


As with pretty much any exploration company, there is only so much "news" available. They are either a) setting themselves up for a major investment or buyout (which the China trip was in my opinion, but that will take a year although they definitely started at the top) or b) drill results. Since per multiple reports here the company is waiting until they complete some amount of drilling before releasing results, that could come next week, next month, or next quarter even. Since 98% of retail investors don't have any idea what a good drill result looks like anyway, they are probably compiling results sufficient enough to warrant attention from very large investors (China again plus others) and that will make sense to retail investors.


Larger or more sophisticated investors will wait for days like Friday to buy in and rarely if ever will buy in on the "surges" but will wait for the "craters". Either way, until results come out, it will be a "retail" dominated play as larger investors or groups will pay more for the assurances results imply vs the wildcatting currently occuring. Not to say many won't take up a position, but the results are the catalyst for real investment dollars outside of the traditional "retail" market.


My only suggestion to management, directors, et al would be to hold a conference call where they state in no uncertian terms that they are drilling this property for the next year, will release results in bulk when it can make sense to normal people, they expect that to occur every month, every quarter, semi-annual or whatever, and investors should expect huge volatility until then. Then tell everyone to put on their big boy and girl pants, save their dollars for ugly days, and pick up as much as they can during the drilling period.


Now back to lurking...

over 12 years ago
chinagoldbug
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