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I went to watch this presentation and it seems to have been pulled from the schedule. It's the only one that on Friday 9/19 "was not webcast".
I'm going out on the limb and predict that Monday will see an upside explosion in gold and silver. Why?
The COT is now firmly signalling bullish for the commercial traders. When have these guys ever been wrong? And the "dumb" money (I'm thinking I'm writing this to the "real dumb" money, LOL! (including me!)) has been sold a bill of goods that PM's are only going down.
First day of the second half of the year. The matrix has let the momentum funds book profits for the quarter. They went in like hogs to the trough to cash in this past week or so.
Sooner or later the matrix has to pull the what I think may be the only card left in the deck to encourage inflation expectations (which contrary to the FED bs is exactly what they want, read Rickards) repricing pms and acutally obviously devaluing the dollar for all the imbeciles to see.
IF they are manipulating PM's (duh right?), they really can't force the price any lower because it will kill the goose that laid the golden egg (pun intended) the miners. It's got to stop here.
For the same reason as above the matrix can't keep slamming PM's in the MSM. They don't want the miners to go under. It would take a long time to ramp back up.
It's summer and all the hedgies will be heading for the Hamptons, the Vineyard and the Cape, so everyone will be caught flat footed. A huge short squeeze.
I think we saw a glimpse of this this afternoon when late PM's took off. Insiders are jumping the gun.
If I'm right we will see Gold and Silver move big, like gold up $200 and silver up $10 in a week.
Just some thoughts to ponder over the weekend. Comments? High Ho Silver...Away!
Henry Smyth: Is this the Rothschild Moment for Gold?`
Submitted by rcwhalen on 06/28/2013 11:43 -0400
"Interest is the difference in the valuation of present goods and future goods; it is the discount in the valuation of future goods as against that of present goods."
Ludwig von Mises
“Planning for Freedom”
We’ve all been watching the selloff in the global gold market. Armies of chicken littles are in a frenzy due to suggestions that the Fed may be ending its quantitative easing, so I thought this is a good time to check in with my friend Henry Smyth of Granville Cooper Asset Management Ltd. (GCAM). Henry is a former Coutts & Co. banker and a very astute observer of the global financial markets. We spoke last week in New York. -- Chris
RCW: Henry, the gold market has been taking a beating in the past few months. What do you see as the drivers of the gold market today?
HS: Since $1525 support broke gold has been in the throes of stop loss selling. Gold is now over 2% below its 200 day moving average. Physical supply is extremely tight. The precious metals analysts where I trade in Zurich have very good contacts among the refiners. They tell me the order backlog is over four weeks now versus four days in a normal market. Same for Shanghai and Mumbai where you see sharply increasing demand as US Dollar gold prices fall and gold premiums rise. Here in the United States the US Mint cannot keep up with demand for gold and silver eagles.
RCW: So is this correction a normal reaction to the Fed? Or has the fact of QE magnified the volatility of gold (and everything else)?
HS: The shorts in the market are running out of short fuel. The decline in gold has been going on since late 2011 and is very long in the tooth. Sentiment against gold is virtually 100% right now among Western gold analysts. This is a Rothschild moment.
RCW: This is a reference to the famous dictum by Baron Rothschild: “Buy when there's blood on the street?”
HS: It is. There seems to be an expectation that the end of QE will be bullish for the Dollar and therefore bearish for gold. My view is the end of QE will be bearish for all those asset classes which require QE for life support and/or do not do well in a rising interest rate environment. That would include the bulk of US equity and fixed income markets.
RCW: So then I take it you currently are a buyer of gold?
HS: Gold is in a primary uptrend and has been since 2001. The long gold strategy of the Granville Cooper Gold Fund II Ltd. began in 2003. We went through a correction in 2004-5 and another in 2008-09. The current correction is longer in duration but similar in percentage change to the previous corrections. Our investment mandate is long term outperformance against the US Dollar gold price. We use corrections to build positions for the resumption of the primary trend. We have buy stops out there now.
RCW: So given the degree of government manipulation of the financial markets, how do you get a clear view of the gold market?
HS: Gold began its uptrend prior to the onset of the first QE. Fed policy can accelerate or retard, but not alter, the primary uptrend in gold. Gold is a global asset class but is viewed in a very provincial way in the United States. We are seeing a tectonic shift in global asset allocation as gold moves from West to East. This is far more significant than the West appreciates. In my view, this shift is it is akin to the movement of gold from Europe to the US following the 1933 devaluation of the dollar via gold by the Roosevelt administration and the promulgation of the Nuremburg Laws in Germany in 1935.
RCW: That is a pretty bold statement. The real driver of wealth migration from Europe to the US was two world wars. How do you see China leveraging their accumulation of gold to build long-term advantage for the Chinese economy?
HS: It appears that China has since the turn of the century had a state policy of encouraging gold ownership by its citizens. Given this policy and the evolution of their bilateral trading and clearing agreements and systems, it is reasonable to assume the Chinese have global ambitions for their currency, and that their gold holdings will be a significant support to the international acceptance of that currency. A reserve currency is the ultimate projection of state power. I think the Chinese get that.
RCW: Thanks Henry. Hopefully somebody in Washington will take heed of your analysis.
Sure, and it was a cross, cause stock dropped $.03 on 3MM+ shares. I bet we'll see a 2MM+ share drop in the short interest in the next report. Somebody made a nice score covering their shorts methinks after reporting Q2 mark to market. Good news or bad? Who knows.
I have't read about this yet, but wanted to bring it up for discussion. Think about this, if the NSA can hack pretty much anybody on the planet if they so choose, it goes a long way to explain the way all the markets have been manipulated for the past few years. NSA goes into hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, COMEX, NYSE, etc., hacks their trading algos and information, reverse engineers a contra algo to manipulate the first algo, and bingo, they can make cows fly! Their biggest worry is probably coordinating the contra algos to not step too much on the fund algos, which maybe is why the flash crashes happen as they do.
Re:
"The new CEOs reflect the industry’s focus away from M&A, (a trend noted in our Global Mining Deals: Down, but not out) and towards achieving operational cost improvements and delivering projects on budget."
It strikes me that cost improvement and delivering projects presently under way is precisely what AUM management is now doing. Do you disagree?
We don't know that AUM management is NOT focused away from M&A, do we? You wouldn't know that until the deal was done and then it's too late. I would say my biggest concern is exactly that, that AUM will be acquired for pennies and dilute us further before management "acheiving operational cost improvements and delivering projects on budget" actually occurs and AUM becomes cashflow positive! I actually visited the office of AUM in Golden several months ago and talked to Karen Winkler and asked her exactly that. Of course I received the usual "can't comment", which didn't leave me feeling warm and fuzzy. Have they delivered anything on time and budget yet? Really, I'm not sure... if someone could enlighten us.