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Investing in the fog

I added a couple of shares sub $2 just now. It looks like they went to an alternate exchange.

So, investing in small companies has been compared to trying to find your way through a dense fog.

Market makers, shorters, big players try to make that fog more dense.

However, company news can turn a few street lights on and help us.

Examples

(1) deal with Hepalink. Is Hepalink going to allow another deal at lower prices?

(2) multiple drugs. Multiple indications. No repeat of 2013 even with a phase 3 miss.

(3) continued elucidation of the MOA - James Watson article on BET etc.

I think there are enough lights on in the fog that investors should be able to value RVX at well over $200 million.

Anyway, just a rant to ignore he fog and the focus on the blue sky that should appear past the next light.

Bfw.

almost 8 years ago
Re: Resverlogix Announces Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders

Yup...I'm figuring that we'll here quite a bit more in the next few weeks prior to November 15.

You don't webcast an AGM unless you have something positive to discuss.

The fact that this has not been done before speaks volumes.

Bfw

almost 8 years ago
Re: Close at $2.47.....print it

Yes.

I think there is a good chance this runs until at least October 13th.

That is why I added a little at $1.95 on Friday when I saw the big buyers return.

Now about the annual meetings for RVX and Zenith :) Surely, it is just a formality that they have yet to be rescheduled ;)

Bfw

almost 8 years ago
Big bid at $1.79 then $1.88 so I added a few

I think they try to ramp it in to the Oct 13 presentation.

I also think the next license deal comes within a month.

Just my speculations.

Bfw

almost 8 years ago
Re: Speculation to chew on for the weekend....

I think that the combination of Resverlogix and Zenith would make sense with right equity issue and uplisting to the Nasdaq.

Let's get some large banking institutions behind the story and let them sell it to investors south of the border.

As mentioned, the combined entity would have multiple ongoing trials and would therefore reduce the risk to shareholders of one trial failure. Given the scaffold and its numerous chemical entities, risk should be reduced anyway.

Furthermore, by removing any royalty issues and by ensuring credit line issues are dealt with, the name would be much cleaner for investors to buy.

Evidently, there would be many factors involved in making this happen. For instance, what valuation would be placed on Zenith shares? $1 US? Depending on where the valuation is placed, many Zenith holders may not vote for the combination. Although they would suddenly have liquidity, they may not be satisfied with a "grey" market valuation.

Bfw

almost 8 years ago
Re: Microcap bought in CVR deal - stock is up 700%

From this am....sounds ok...to me...shareholders win today and may win plenty more tomorrow.

Allergan, the pharmaceutical giant, is purchasing tiny Tobira Therapeutics in an interesting acquisition.

The deal is initially for $28.35 per share in cash, however according to the statement from Allergan, the deal could balloon to much more.

Tobira, which closed trading on Monday at $4.74 a share and a market cap of just $89 million, is developing two drugs to treat NASH disease. According tothe Allergan statement, NASH is a build up of fat in the liver for unknown reasons that can eventually lead to liver failure.

Tobira has two drugs under development that used together could help to treat NASH — Cenicriviroc (CVC) and Evogliptin — and this is where the big payday for Tobira comes in. In the event that the drugs meet certain thresholds, the purchase price by Allergan could get much larger.

"Allergan will acquire Tobira for an upfront payment of $28.35 per share, in cash, and up to $49.84 per share in Contingent Value Rights (CVRs) that may be payable based on the successful completion of certain development, regulatory and commercial milestones, for a total potential consideration of up to $1.695 billion," said the release from Allergan.

Thus, if the drugs end up making it to market the acquisition price doubles and the company is acquired for a total that is just over 1,800% above its closing market cap from Monday of $89 million.

The move by Allergan, according to the release is a bet that the drugs will not only be successful, but also will address a growing need.

With the increasing rates of diabetes, obesity and other metabolic conditions in the U.S. and in developed nations globally, NASH is set to become one of the next epidemic-level chronic diseases we face as a society," said Allergan CEO Brent Saunders in the statement announcing the move.

"It is important that we invest in new treatments today so that healthcare systems, providers and patients have treatment options to face this challenge in the coming years."

It's not uncommon for a pharma companies stock to skyrocketing following the approval of a new drug. On Monday, Sarepta Therapeutics surged as much as 86% after the Food and Drug Administration approved its Exondys 51 drug.

Thus, Allergan is making the bet that the development of Tobira's drugs will similarly add value to it portfolio.

In pre-market trading, shares Tobira had surged to $31.85 per share, a 572% increase. Shares of Allergan were down slightly following the news, down 0.3% to $244.50 per share as of 8:34 a.m. ET.

about 8 years ago
bfw
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