In the last couple of days the big suits are buing TID after driving it shares price as low as 0.19. But why? Do they anticiptate stronger Q3, or they want pump it up and then dump it and screw the little guy?

Can some one commnet on the valarion of TID now, with 400m outstanding shares and 210 long term debt. If TID was to fold shop today, how much will TID be worth per share basis after paying debt of 210m?

Believe

I predict buyout at $1.20

Hi Sharky,if that is the case then it is an otherway saying that cll went bankrupt. It means that the price of 540 mil will not even pay the 900m debt. how did u arrive at this number, am sure u did not pull it from thin air

OPTI went for over 2.3 bil with195 mi 1P reservers a debt of 2b. Cll has 1b debt and 100 m IP reservers, if cll went for 1.20 per share and share holders get nothing then DG is right in attempting to pursue the growth strategy, OPTI's share holders only got 35 million. Is our fate as cll share holders the same? or is cll worth more than OPTI because it has half of the amount of debt? Or is this comparing oranges and blue berry? I also recall that OPTI had only 35 stake on its holding

If sharky is suggesting cll will go for 1.20 after paying debt that means cll will be sold for about 3.20 to acount for debt

thanks

B

"We are going North very soon"

Based on what? Yes oil is high, and at this lever cll will pay the bill,nothing more. How about if oil suddenly crashes ? even of oil goes down to 60 cll is screwed. The problem is two fols: high debt and lots of shares,if one of them. And there is no easy to manage both of them to my knowledge, If the stars are alinged for cll and oil stays put where it is for a two yrs,then they can use some cash flow to expand light oil,but oil sands expansion is dead for cll for the near future. I am sure how big is cll's light oil resources, but if they can double oil production with light oil instead of oil sand,here you get expansion with no much risk and if nat gas increases in price, they can also leverege their vast nat gas resources from Luke and that can be done faster and easier, in these two scenarious cll will become attractive.

The seeds for the current pradicament were sowen when they focused soleley on oil sands,theyu thought they were hedged when they bought MCR and luke for gas.

thanks

Believe

Hi All,

The reason the sp is way lower thatn it was before pod 1 was online was cus of dilution and debt, back then although there was no production to speak of the there was little debt or nodebt and number of shares were less than halfe. 'Mrs". market was betting on the quality of proved management and the higher possiblity of success. now we are burdened with 1b debt and 500m shares,the slice is thinner and the debt heavier.

If JV failes and no buy out happens can Dick cancel current debt and get an other long termdebt with lower interest cus we have very low interest, this is not to finance expansion,but to whether as he likes to call it or is he tighted to this heavy debt, this way we can incremtly fund from cash flow paying less interest and then proceed with his sweet oil expansion, instead of doubling production from oil sands, double it from sweet oil and if we are lucky in 2 yrs nat gas price will go t 5 and then make money from there as well

Believe

Hi bbwanaa

From your lips to God' ears. I am at loss how you came up the 2.9b for shareholders using your NAV valuing instead of. Rem CLL has 450million shares outstanding.

But I agree with you the mistake they made was being aggressive. But Algar was conceived and even commencec building before the great crash of 2008. I always thought that they were aggressive towards the oil sands,even at one point they had a slogan " It is all about the oil sands" It was dumb not to diversify in sweet oil, they tried to do that after the fact.

Management also suffered from hyperopia, the exact opposite ofg myopia, they diluted cll value by issuing shares to buy gas company and that was as a result of their focus on oil sands. They did good with refinery though

One q to the board is and one of our great contributers can help me is assuming jv is found how much will they pay to get 50% and is this 50% of the entire cll or the next expansion and would that help cll reduce debt or that will be striclty for expansion. Let say cll finds partner willing to pay 200m to get half of whatever can that 200m be applied toreduce our debt or is cll forced to use that money to fund expansion, does cll have the luxury to reduce debt using the jv injection and fund expansion with cash flow

also if jv is for 50 % for the next 24k expasnion how much can we potential get and if the jv is for th 50 of cll how much

thanks

Believe

Sharky,

Due diligence is just a fanyc and sexy term that verifying.

Well, I am still not clear what is the value of cll for shareholders when cll is sold including the debt, Debtis now 2 times oust standing shares. so when Nuttal says 1.55+ does that mean share holders will ger 1.55+ times 450 milliong, or wll they get 1.55+ times 450 minus 1bill?

Some one is un charactistically silent, Road-warrior, where are you?

Thanks