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As stated before the calculation is based on Pellegrino I which shows estimated revenues of 8.17%

As far as I know, Pellegrino II didn't reveal any further numbers in this regard, but mentioned to had lowered the rate

The goal was to point out that the much-quoted SP of $70 would mathematically equal market penetration of 1%.

If you want to multiply by 50, go and have fun with it.

While waiting for news in SP-ranges of $1.60 may one or the other considers the notorious $70-Club far off.

Well, let us use the time to recall resp. take a closer look at some numbers all around this popular quotation, using the following assumptions:

Global semiconductor market in 2016: $355 billions

Amount of shares in 2016: 250.000.000 (fully diluted, together with some more shares for “happy bankers”)

P/E-ratio: 60 (according to ARM using a similar license model)

Revenue: 8% (according to the Pellegino-reports)

Now let’s do a rough calculation excluding NRE, costs and taxes- here we go:

$70 / ($355,000,000,000 x 0.08 / $250,000,000 x 60) = 0.01

As you see, from a straight mathematical point of view (no hype, no future anticipation etc. considered) the journey from $1.60 to $70 will take as long as it will take to gain market penetration of roughly just 1%.

So this will be the point when the $70-Club opens its doors: 1% of the semiconductor market using Poet-technology. Everyone who believes this can happen- welcome to the club right now.

Someone thinks of 10%? Well, let me ask my calculator for the according SP… Damn! It got broken just by now… So, you have to do this one on your own… ;-)

GLTAL

Sorry, Babaoriley, seems I missed that- my bad.

It never was my intention to discredit anyone- if it was, be sure that would have been put differently.

That's true, hhoefi, I was amused too by the numbers of thumbs, since I pointed out an accidentally made but very clear miscalculation by FJ (1% of his estimated $7,741,238,400 annual revenue is simply not $774,123,840, and so his calculated SP of $278.62 had to be lowered by the miscalculated factor of 10, too).

But lower numbers don't taste as sweet, so...

By the way, my own calculation shows even a slightly lower SP, since I not only take revenue, but also expenses into account. I am still very happy with that, but assume the board won't ;-)