This story is becoming more and more one of the best stories I have seen in the biotech arena on the venture for the last couple of years at least.

Many anticipated a flush of shares once the last placement became free trading, but as I mentioned before, the speed at which that PP closed suggested that only handful set of investors were given a meaningful piece and they are not going to give it away at such levels.

Whenever I want to get into a story, I look at so called 5 DD points. Theralase ticks the box of the so called top 5 DD points (technology and science, management and having skin in the game, valuation and comparable, financials and upcoming milestones). Add to that an element that is rarely available in many stocks on the venture, market savvy investors and investor awareness groups that can get investors attention to the unique opportunity Theralase has to offer.

Indeed the speed at which nearly 5 million lose shares were eaten up last week speaks to the potential valuation seed investors and new ones are looking to exit at. This has all happened with just a handful newsletters providing coverage combined with a major milestone (regarding the PDC destroying bacterial cancer) that took place in the last few weeks.

To my mind, the real beauty of this story is that it has a strong balance sheet to become cashflow positive and self finance its trials. So in a nutshell, Theralase will launch second generation of a very effective pain relief device into the US and Canada in the coming couple of quarters. They are already generating 2 million dollars in revenue in Canada and their device is FDA approved. Next they will move their pre-clinical trial to a GMP approved setup, so that they can conduct a Ph1/Ph2 trial for bladder cancer in Q1/Q2 of 2015.

From a balance sheet perspective the Company is sitting at almost 2 million dollars in positive working capital position and has 21 million warrants in the money that could beef up the treasury by another 4.2 million dollars. Last reported quarter, the Company had a net burn rate of 185k (after taking into account EBITDA from current device) per 3 months. So, the Company has enough cash upto Q2 of 2015, taking into account around 500k for the new launch of the second generation device and nearly 1 million dollars for the trial setup. All warrants are currently in the money, so they can take themselves through the first part of the trial as well (all the way to the end of 2015) once warrants are exercised.

Insiders have a lot of skin in the story (nearly 10 million shares) aside from a Company that owns a few million shares of Theralase, which is also owned by an insider.

I believe the milestones will soon start to materialize on this Company.

MMN
https://twitter.com/makingmoneynow1

No need to speculate this way, had results been known/factored in you would have seen days of volume that exceed 2Million shares leading to results.

I know a lot of people holding 200k+ and some hold 800k shares and yet they do not know the results, so please take your negative vibe away.

MMN

One more trading day and we get into the week of the 21st.

Good luck longs, its been a long 18 months for me, but my bet is that it will be quite worth it.

MMN

I do not think we will see a huge correction (30%+). Canada and the US are puming money like no tomorrow and I see no way the market going back to March' levels, not till at least the end of Q2, start of Q3 2010.

My friend at GS says that theyare very confident that this is a real recovery. I am involved in the M&A activity and I have never seen so many oppotunities coming to us and as you know the deal market works hand in hand with the market.

I am not saying we will not see a correction, but I do not think we will see anything beyond 10-15%.

Remember history shows that the only two places that made people rich were the equity and real estate market. Moreover, banks are giving people 0.5% or less on deposits, so putting your money in the bank is actually reducing the value of it.

JMHO

MMN

Just make sure you are using logical numbers when looking at acquisition targets.

For example, say Alda comes with a Q4/Q1 10 earnings of 3M (12M annulized), then the Company could sell for 10x earnings, so maybe 80-120Million dollars.

As G_M said its too early in the game, TO will not sell his crown gewel for such a price. However, that is the realistic value of Alda by early next year. However, if you want to see real $$ out of Alda then you are looking at valuing the therputic application of their products, which is very early stage, however, if you plan to stay in APH for 3-5 years it might be worth it.

Meanwhile 1.00$-1.5$ is a very logical exit.

MMN