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Crazy Valuations

So let's throw out the "backroom boys" and the "eternal optimists". In between what is the consensus for these crazy price targets we've all seen this week? Finncap has "reduced" their target price from "$27 to $26" (of course we'd all sell our souls for anything over $10). Another house stated their target of $21 CAD. Where are these #'s coming from or are they simply eminating from UK based pumping houses? I mean i'd like to believe that the properties we are sitting on and their potential reserves of oil and gas are very meaningful, but at this point who in their right mind is putting $20+ targets on the stock?? If one day this happens i will be happily retired but in the meantime is there any justification whatsoever to this? Anyone know anything about Finncap or the other broker who are touting $20+ ? Are they trying to pump it so they can sell some larger blocks?

Confused.


LP

about 9 years ago
Russia's richest oligarch backs Irish fracking firm Falcon Oil in gamble

Not sure why the article keeps referring to Falcon as a "fracking firm" but a good read nonetheless.


Russia's richest man has emerged as a major backer of Dublin-based fracking company Falcon Oil & Gas. Viktor Vekselberg, who has a $14.7bn fortune, owns 12.24pc of the company through Soliter Holdings, part of his conglomerate the Renova group.








Ukrainian-born Vekselberg made his fortune when Boris Yeltsin began privatising Russia's aluminium industry in the early 90s. He founded Renova in 1990 and used his aluminium riches to buy into Tyumen Oil, one of Russia's biggest oil producers which eventually formed a joint venture with BP before being bought by Rosneft.



A Wealth-X survey released in January put his fortune at $14.7bn - $2bn larger than that of Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich, and about $1bn ahead of Alisher Usmanov.




In 2004 Vekselberg, described last year by the Financial Times as a "Kremlin-friendly tycoon" spent slightly more than $100m buying nine Faberge eggs. He told the BBC the eggs gave him a "warm glow". But his specialty is exploration.




"Viktor's very managerial," says former junior minister Conor Lenihan, who worked with Vekselberg on the Skolkovo project - the continuing construction of a tech hub comparable to Silicon Valley outside Moscow.




"He's one of those entrepreneurs who has fantastic managerial skills and works well with his team. He drives his team extremely hard.




"Like any other rational investor, he is just looking for a return on his investment. The investment managers he would appoint to an investment like this would be very highly incentivised in relation to getting a return."




So what has him involved with Falcon? Renova's Moscow spokesman didn't comment on the specific reasons when contacted by the Sunday Independent, but Falcon's high-potential portfolio probably holds the key.




The company's flagship asset is a 30pc interest in the 4.6m-acre Beetaloo basin in northern Australia. Shortly it will break ground on the first of three exploration wells due to be drilled as part of a $200m farm-out deal with Sasol and Origin, which included a $20m cash payment up front. The Beetaloo is seen in the industry as a major litmus test which will reveal much about the viability of fracking outside the USA.




Falcon won't have to a pay a penny towards the cost of the first three wells, which are designed to see if the basin is commercially viable. Next year the plan is to start fracking - drilling into the ground and shooting rocks with a high-pressure mixture of water, sand and chemicals to release the resources inside.




The Dublin-based fracker - probably the most interesting Irish-listed company of which you've never heard - is run by Philip O'Quigley, the former chief financial officer of Tony O'Reilly's Providence Resources. Chairman is John Craven, the former chief executive of Cove Energy which was sold for £1.2bn. Craven was the founder of Petroceltic and the man who floated it.




Maxim Mayorets, Vekselberg's head of mergers and acquisitions - or top dealmaker in plain English - is on Falcon's board. So is Gyorgy Szabo, a Hungarian who oversaw the extinguishing of some of the Kuwait oil fires in the early 1990s.




O'Quigley looks to have left Providence at the right time. Dublin, London and Toronto-listed Falcon is valued at €138m, nearly four times as much as Providence, with O'Reilly's company dropping precipitously in value over the last year.




Carlow native O'Quigley (52) trained as an accountant with Ernst & Young and later became financial director at Craven's Petroceltic. Then he was CFO of Providence from 2008 until he became Falcon boss in 2012. He remains on Providence's board as a non-executive director. He joined Falcon after an approach from Craven.




"Falcon was not in a good place at that time with debt on the balance sheet and the prospect of running out of cash being just two of its many challenges. But given the quality and scale of Falcon's assets, this was an opportunity too good to miss. The dynamics of running a junior oil and gas company are vast - but my four years at Providence proved to have been a great training ground for my role as CEO of Falcon as I learnt so much from working with Tony O'Reilly.




"It's an industry full of great characters and an industry that quickly grows on you like no other. The risks of failure are huge but so too are the rewards of success and it is the constant uncertainty of not knowing which is around the corner that is the thrill... the scale, the technical challenges and advances and the fact energy remains the cornerstone of economic prosperity makes it a very rewarding industry."




It's also an industry that's very different from the norm. Falcon has a market capitalisation of €138m, even though it's not producing anything. The value is based entirely on the potential of its portfolio, which may never be realised.




As O'Quigley puts it: "Falcon cannot be a small success. It will either not work at all, or be a success on a huge scale."




The Falcon boss drives a hard bargain. In 2013 he refused to give US oil giant Hess an extension on a drilling commitment in the Australian asset - effectively kicking them out the door.




"They had an activist investor on the register which was putting great pressure on them to retrench their overseas investment so they tried to buy another time extension with the wrong man," O'Quigley said. "It was a very tough decision, but the terms of the deal we did with Origin and Sasol are far better."




Fracking is controversial - opponents say there are risks of groundwater contamination. Daniel Schrag, a Harvard academic and advisor to US President Barack Obama, said there are environmental risks but that they aren't "that much worse than conventional gas."




The UK Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering said "the health, safety and environmental risks associated with hydraulic fracturing as a means to extract shale gas can be managed effectively in the UK as long as operational best practices are implemented and enforced through regulation."




O'Quigley says only that "debate is good and it is right to have a debate on this issue. But the debate needs to focus more on the facts and less on the myths."




Falcon's second most valuable asset is in the Karoo basin in South Africa. Its partner there is US giant Chevron. That country is suffering from a massive energy shortage and successful gas development there would be huge for Falcon. The Energy Information Administration ranks the Karoo in the top five unconventional basins in the world.




Despite the fall in oil Falcon's share price is about the same as a year ago. Davy analyst Job Langbroek has an 'outperform' rating on the stock.




"Shale gas and light tight oil and all that has been a game-changer in the industry and has really survived initial scepticism by everybody really," Langbroek told the Sunday Independent.




"Its genesis was in the US and in many ways the US is the perfect test tube. It's got the right rocks, it had the infrastructure, or most of it. It had a legislature that was friendly towards oil and gas, the local landowners get recompensed. The big question is, is it repeatable elsewhere?




"I think the answer is probably out that it's very hard to repeat it in Europe. Let's leave the UK aside for a moment as the jury's out on that. Other places where you might get it, think China, think Argentina, think Australia and South Africa. Those places have the right rocks. They probably have the right attitude to them, in the sense that either they can get it done or there's not an awful lot of people around. There are questions about markets. Where does the gas go? Are there enough companies? Is there enough service infrastructure? But a lot of those boxes are ticked by Australia - the gas can go north to Asia, they've got plenty of water, and they seem to have a friendly enough legislature.




"The model that he follows is you use shareholder funds to set up the asset play at the start, and then you do it in such a way that you've used your local knowledge and skill to set yourself up so you develop an asset that the industry wants to get involved in. And he's done that in Australia.




"It's a good deal in the sense that he's no capital upfront, it's a big uplift on the carried valuation prior to that, and when the wells get drilled and if they've discovered gas and if it becomes a viable project, then you get another value uplift.




"There's no easy comparable Irish-listed company doing unconventionals. It really puts them in another category."


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/russias-richest-oligarch-backs-irish-fracking-firm-falcon-oil-in-gamble-31335012.html


about 9 years ago
Re: SA petroleum agency’s Karoo shale-gas estimate ‘far lower’ - - - bdlive

"THE Petroleum Agency South Africa (Pasa) estimates that recoverable reserves of shale gas in the Karoo are about 40-trillion cubic feet — much less than the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) estimate of 480-trillion cubic feet."


Let's keep this in perspective. 480 TCF is MIND BLOWING, an Earthly game changer. A lowly "40 TCF" (if that's "all it is") is still an unbelievably significant find that would take decades to extract and add significant value. Let's not be distracted by the actual potential size of the prize. 40 TCF would be considered a GLOBAL GAME CHANGER in ANY market. The chance at 480 TCF is just silly and if even just 10% accurate is a pretty sick upside. Many companies get way too excited at a few BCF (See potentially Mako Szolnok) but to even be talking in the TCF range is sick in itself. 40 TCF is a hell of a lot of gas so i'm not sure why anyone would be disappointed, other than the USGS started talking 480 TCF which would be insane. If 40 TCF is the low point of all the estimates my guess is we'll all be very rich one day. Just not sure if that is 10 or 50 years from now :) Simply, it would be nice if the SP started to represent the value that we have in our 3 major assets but unfortunately previous talk-up and let-down affects that and the fact that a lot of us believe that this could indeed be the hold-long-and-get-that-once-in-a-lifetime monster return has both endeared us all and at the same time disenfranchised some. I can't think of any other venture that seems to be at the very beginning of a very long adventure with every passing year, never seeming to be primed for progression. I think all the fundamentals are there for this to be explosive, but the question amongst us patient holders is most likely "WHICH DECADE" will we see some success LOL. For those of us that are a bit longer in the tooth let's hope the answer is THIS DECADE. Long and strong since 2005.


Cheers,


LP

almost 10 years ago
Re: House Positions - Soly

Freewill - Let's get FRICKEN' FRACKIN'. We've been holding for 8 FRICKEN' YEARS. Re: Cocktails, i'll bring the Southern Comfort, you name the location. Just hope the date is not 2040.

Cheers


LP

over 10 years ago
Happy New Year Falconers

It has indeed been a long struggle of unkept promises and extended timelines but i would like to wish all the true long Falconers all the best in 2014 and let's hope this is finally our time to be PRIME TIME. We've been so very patient and waiting long enough to earn some sort of solid building blocks to pave our way to relevence in the global market. It's been 7 years since i bought my first shares and with every passing New Years Eve i've thought THIS IS THE YEAR, it HAS TO BE just to be sadly disappointed. I do realize that in ventures such as the ones we are involved, there is a lot of groundwork and permitting involved before the drill hits the gound but we're not in Kansas anymore (refer: "Tiger by the tail") and we've made some REAL progress these past few years...just would like to see it all start to come together into something magical and real we've all dreamed of for so long.


So in this, we rest our faith in Philip and John and the rest and know well that their well being with respect to this bird is our well being. Go get 'em boys and in 5-10 years make us all look like the geniuses we figured we were so many years back when we first shelled out for the dream.


It's times like these i miss Lanman - he would have had something much more clever (and rhyming) to say...but i am thankful to John (Soly) for all his work and support of this board through the thick and thin. Best wishes to all in 2014 and hopefully this is the year we start getting some traction and see some major sustainable developments on all properties. Be well and be long.


LP

over 10 years ago
Australian Northern Territory Heating Up


Northern Territory heating up as North Americans join ASX oilies: Hess, PetroFrontier, Baraka Energy


Saturday, April 14, 2012 by Bevis Yeo

The Northern Territory is emerging as the frontier oil and gas exploration hot spot in Australia as new oil finds and unconventional boom draws North American majors and explorers. The Northern Territory is emerging as the frontier oil and gas exploration hot spot in Australia as new oil finds and unconventional boom draws North American majors and explorers.

While oil and gas activity in Australia has grown in recent years, the Northern Territory's onshore basins have seemingly sailed under the radar with just a handful of juniors keeping the flame burning.

However, the strong interest in unconventional gas plays in the country and the entry of North American players has sparked interest in the state's resources and the promise of increased levels of exploration and development activity.

This can be seen by the speed at which the acreage have being snapped up with roughly 90% of the most prospective basins now under licence or application, compared to less than 10% a few years ago.

Background

Despite their size and potential prospectivity, the Amadeus, Beetaloo, onshore Bonaparte, Georgina and Pedirka basins have had minimal exploration carried out on them due in no small part to their remote location.

Most of the work was carried out on the Amadeus where the Mereenie oil field and Palm Valley gas field were discovered in 1963 and 1965 respectively and brought into production more than 20 years later in 1984 and 1987.

Work by the Northern Territory Geological Survey has estimated that up to 650 million barrels of oil equivalent unrisked recoverable hydrocarbons remain to be discovered in the Amadeus.

The Basin is also believed to have large unconventional gas resources in the Ordovician Larapinta Group.

Test wells were also drilled in the Georgina Basin, with most recent in 1991, that demonstrated oil shows and good quality source rocks. However, these were plugged and abandoned.

Nonetheless, the Georgina is now considered to be the most prospective undeveloped basin in the Northern Territory with a number of companies planning to start exploration work.

Other basins include the Pedirka, which is contiguous with the highly prolific Cooper Basin to the south, the Bonaparte Basin that contains a number of known oil and gas fields, and the Beetaloo Basin, which has attracted U.S. independent Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES).

Australian players

Central Petroleum (ASX: CTP) holds a large acreage position throughout the Northern Territory, focusing primarily on the Amadeus, Pedirka and Georgina basins.

The company has been exploring the region for more than a decade and has finally seen its efforts to prove up the petroleum prospectivity of Central Australia bear fruit with the Surprise-1 oil discovery in the Amadeus Basin that is set to enter production testing.

Central is also targeting unconventional coal and shale targets in both the Pedirka and Georgina basins.

Investors have jumped on board the CTP bandwagon this year, with shares in the company almost doubling to a high of A$0.105 on 12 April from A$0.053 at the beginning of the year.

Also in the Georgina Basin is Baraka Energy & Resources (ASX:BKP), which holds 25% stakes in 2 permits as well as a 75% interest in a 75 square kilometre area around the Elkedra-7 well which had encountered oil shows.

Baraka believes the use of modern horizontal drilling and multi stage fracture stimulation technology would unlock the hydrocarbon potential of the Arthur Creek shales and make the Southern Georgina, where its assets are located, a valuable exploration prospect.

Meanwhile, Beach Energy (ASX: BPT) had late last year signed a formal agreement to earn up to 90% stakes in two onshore Bonaparte Basin permits held by private company Territory Oil and Gas.

This involves the funding a 3 phase work program that includes an aeromagnetic/gravity survey and 2 deep wells.

Somerton Energy (ASX: SNE), which Beach owns 56.2% in, has since secured rights to take a 18% stake in the 2 permits.

Armour Energy, a 50% owned subsidiary of DGR Global (ASX: DGR) that is currently in the middle of a A$75 million initial public offering, holds a 126,000 square kilometre portfolio in the McArthur, South Nicholson and Georgina basins.

This funding will allow the company to embark on an aggressive drilling program of up to 9 vertical wells, 3 lateral wells and completion of 2 multi stage fracture stimulation programs in EP 171 and EP 176 in the McArthur over the next two years.

MBA Petroleum Consultants has assessed this area to contain a combined mean prospective resource of 18.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas and 2 billion barrels of associated liquids within its unconventional and conventional plays.

Private company Falcon Oil & Gas is also poised to embark on a major drilling campaign in the Beetaloo Basin, where it holds more than 28,300 square kilometres in four licences it acquired in 2008.

While its exploration work has identified six active petroleum systems with shale oil and gas in addition to conventional potential, it is the entry of Hess under a US$60 million (A$57.7 million) farm-in to a 25,200 square kilometre area that is set to stoke the exploration fire.

North American investment

Hess, which has shale gas experience in the U.S. and the offshore WA-390-P permit off Western Australia where it has made a number of gas discoveries, is paying Falcon US$17.5 million for a 62.5% stake in the acreage and will also pay the cost of a US$40 million seismic acquisition program.

It can then elect to continue to the next phase of the work program that includes drilling five wells to explore and appraise the agreement area.

Hess is arguably the largest player to commit to exploration in the onshore Northern Territory and its presence could draw the attention of other major independents and supermajors into the area.

However, it is far from the only North American player in the area.

Canada's PetroFrontier (CVE: PFC) holds a massive 55,000 square kilometre acreage position in the southern Georgina Basin, including permits EP 127 and EP 128 that Baraka is participating in.

It started its exploration program in August 2011 with the drilling of 1 horizontal well and the start of another, though this was suspended due to the wet season in the Territory.

This second well is expected to be completed in the dry season of this year while a third well will be spudded in the current quarter.

The 3 wells will then be fracced and tested for economic flow rates from the Arthur Creek “Hot Shale” zone.

PetroFrontier is also expanding its acreage in the Basin, acquiring 2 exploration permit applications that are subject to negotiation of surface access agreements with the Aboriginal stakeholders.

Fellow Canadian Rodinia Oil (CVE:ROZ) has the right to earn up to 60% in about 22,260 square kilometres of Georgina Basin acreage.


http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/27619/northern-territory-heating-up-as-north-americans-join-asx-oilies-hess-petrofrontier-baraka-energy-27619.html


over 12 years ago
Lakeside_Park
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Smithville
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