Ianvestor65's Profile

I am primarily a short term technical trader who plays bounces on severely depressed but sound companies. Trading is not my profession but it is my passion. Most of the time I spend my days teaching people how to sell retail in the U.S. and Latin America.

Ianvestor65's Posts

VP Maduro confirms death of Chavez

Just annoucned on Univision...Chavez has died.

over 11 years ago
Re: ICSID question

I didn't plan to make any more posts, but I agree you deserve to hear my reasons for departing and the .30 estimate I gave. I don't have the exact figures I used and have little desire to go find them, but I will give you my assumptions and you can compare them to the settlement and see if they make sense or if you thik I'm off base.


My main assumption is that Fung will not seek anything above the $700 million where his 10% caps out. Why would he when that would just give more value to shareholders but only yield him 2% vs. 10% for the easy $700 million. In all the years I was in KRY, I have seen no evidence that Fung gives a damn about retail shareholders.


Based on our current situation and a $700m arbitration, we will have approximately $200m in depts, interests and expenses. This assumes that the note holders will not receive anything more than their principal plus interest. I highly doubt this will be the case and I expect them to get some % of the award in the end. Despite that, I believe our cut as shareholders after expenses and the DIP lender cut plus management cut is 35%. That would net $175m divided among 365m shares or about $.48 per share. This assumes waiting for final payment. I fully expect at least another $50m in expenses either to noteholders or to the BOD, which takes us down to about $.34, again waiting until the final award is paid.


Those who still believe in this stock are gambling on an award far above the $700m I assume. It could happen, but my experience with Fung tells me this is a long shot. Fung cares about Fung and his board (and maybe EZ). His $150k bonus just before filing bankruptcy should tell you something. I don't doubt he did everything he thought was best to gain the permit, but once he failed in that he handled everything after very poorly. I don't own GRZ, but Bellanger handled the post permit sitaution and arbitration much better. EZ has never answered why GRZ got their permit when Hugo supposedly hated them and loved us. Their permit was canceled only after we were denied ours. I think Fung ignored what was being signaled in VZ press and therefore we ended up in a worse position.


I don't advise selling if you believe in this story, but I think it has become more emotional than realistic. The market reaction after court approval of the DIP is a big tell for me. My calculation suggested I had an upside of .30 to .40 but I would need to wait several years for that. Even if the award was in the neighborhood of .60 we still have the expenses of teh noteholder restructure to address, and no one is going to pay more than half of that for a gain several years away. I have already lost over $150,000 in this stock and the few thousand shares I had left would not even make a dent on this even if we got $1.00 a share.


I did not intend to post after selling, but EZ's post just got me going. EZ would be a great ally for a private company he believed in, but he would make a poor investment advisor. That's OK, but his trashing of anyone who questioned Fung or CRY got under my skin. My trading mentor taught me that I should never invest to be right, just to make money. Many company's have been "right" about what they did, but if they don't deliver for shareholders then they have failed. This is what we have forgotten. Fung's job was to deliver for shareholders. In my opinion he should have seen the signs that GRZ did and filed sooner when we were not so desparate. Right or wrong that has (IMHO) left us in a situation where we are unlikely to gain more than a minimal price. I am just no longer willing to keep this albatros on my neck.


I wish everyone who still believes good luck. It's just over for me. I do not plan to post here anymore but am available by PM.

over 12 years ago
Re: ICSID question

Having to choose between the following:


1. A monkey who delivers a 10 bagger for shareholders as of today since the low after having their permit revoked. Plus a monkey who has committed to giving the arbitration award to shareholders for more potential gain.


2. A financial genious and brilliant leader who delivers a 96% loss leaving thousands of shareholders destitute with no chance to recover and puts his company in bankruptcy and delisting while at the same time taking a $150,000 bonus for delivering the failure. Coupled with giving away most of the potential arbitration award in order to secure a million dollar payout for himself and his BOD while leaving shareholders with little chance to recoup more than $.30 per share.


I'll take the monkey.


EZ - I really don't know what your love affair with Fung is all about, but you defy all logic. You have trashed anyone who ever dared to question the great and powerful Oz/Fung while he delivers loss after loss. And You trash Belanger who while he may have had a weaker claim, he has delivered profit to shareholders. In the end that is what it is all about.... delivering gain to shareholders. If you do everything right and deliver a loss you are a loser. If you do everything "wrong" but deliver a win for shareholders, you are a winner.


It is interesting that Belanger will deliver to his shareholders more through arbitration than Fung would have if he had earned the permit. Your trashing of Belanger is unjustified and your slurping praise for Fung is insane. I just wish I had sold my KRY and bought GRZ instead of listening to the blathering ravings of people like you.


I have sold the last of my CRY "F" Qyou" shares today and am done with you and your kind. I would not be surprised if your name is on the redacted list of people receiving big gains under the DIP. I see no other logical reason for your aggressive defense of Fung and continued trashing of those who dared to question him.


Good night and good bye.

over 12 years ago
Re: Shareholder Rape

Good post Mine. I stopped posting here a long time ago because I was repeatedly bashed by the Fung Fans. I stated then and affirm now that Fung has never cared about shareholders. Crystallex Management is out for themselves. They have received very high salaries for failing to achieve success. Now they want an even greater winfall. GRZ has been bashed as a bad company but they are returning their award to shareholders. We are looking at 35% to the DIP and 10% to management but it is highly unlikely the noteholders will get only their investment back. That will impact the final settlement. Crystallex has a large number of employees receiving high salaries including two IR representatives. None of them have any money invested in the company (RM excluded). Maybe that's a shill but I think RM is sincere.


I would rather continue paying these guys their outrageous salaries for doing nothing and failing to move Crystalex forward than give them a big piece of the pie if we are successful. My opinion would be different if they had filed many months ago when I and others believed they should have.


For disclosure, I was once a large shareholder. I have lost $163,210 in my "investment". I have only 20,000 shares left and there is no way I will ever recoup my losses. For those who think there is an upside now I think you are right. Just don't delude yourself that Cyrstallex management has any concern for you. I could average down and maybe recoup my losses but I don't trust this management team. Buyer Beware. If Agoracom wants to take my suit for these remarks, you can have it willingly.

over 12 years ago
Re: Fong's 50% giveaway vs. Bankruptcy protection

Vlada - One reason I would guess is that there is a requirement that a company remain solvent while pursuing arbitration. I don't recall which clause it is but some months back I was able to pull confirmation of this requirement out of RM (very difficult). If they file bacnkruptcy they are pretty much stating they are insolvent and would therefore not be able to pursue the claim.


This filing yesterday seems like a protection so they can GET solvent and thus remain in the game. I woud imagine Fung and lawyers looked into whether this would affect the arbitration. Since the initial hearing is set for two years from now (initial hearing) I would suspect that this was done to allow them to complete what they need to do to get solvent and not waste the tribunals time if they can't.


I would not call this filing positive, and I don't think the judge is going to consider shareholder value beyond it's use by Fung as the reason he did not close the PP. The protection is given to allow a company to retructure and pay it's creditors, not to increase share value. If that happens as a bi-product of paying creditors, then there is some hope, but I don't think it will be anything like some are expecting.


Thanks to those who posted what they could about the PP. Everyone should remember that anyone who was involved in the PP would be prohibited from disclosing the failure of it closing so the fact that those who were trying to particpate became silent is understandable


Happy Holidays to everyone.

over 12 years ago
Re: Down to the wire

Thanks. I truly hope this works out but I am skeptical and doubt we will gain much considering the terms. Still thank you for sharing and for responding. This board should be about sharing information good or bad....not about defending Fung or calling those who question things bashers.


The one truism in business is that efforts & intentions do not count....only results count, and when you are CEO you are responsible for results no matter how much or little you had to do to get them.


Thanks again.

almost 13 years ago
Ianvestor65
City
Miami
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President
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Date Joined
02/13/2008
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