Ike, I personally don't put a huge weight in manipulation other than in the short term. I mean to some extent every market is manipulated -- but so what? I say trade with the trend, make money with the banks in the paper markets and put that into physical for long term holding. I don't believe that can impact the long-term cycle. Best, Hysteria.

Hi everyone,

I haven't posted on here in a long while. It's been tough to watch the mining sector crumble amidst a gold price still high by historic standards, so I've been focusing my energy elsewhere.

I though I would share with anyone here some free analysis that I am posting on my Youtube channel. I am focusing on the precious metals and related markets because it is what I have studied most over the last 10 years. For what it's worth, it looks to me very much like gold is in the process of putting in a long bottom. This is significant, because it will represent a bottom above the previous all-time high ($850 from 1980). According to my analysis, that makes the current decline since 2011 a lengthly retest. Successful retests after multi-decade consolidations and breakouts (gold 1980 - 2009) tend to result in multi-decade advances that result in multiples of the previous highs.

What I am saying is that after this retest, should it prove successful, we may be gearing up for a multi-decade leg higher in the precious metals, of course, with its typical violent ups and downs along the way.

For comparison, you can look at the price of oil from the 1970's until it broke out above $40 in 2004, or the Dow after it broke out of its 1959 - 1982 consolidation. Long term consolidations and breakouts lead to significant advances.

I don't plan to write much on this particular board because it appears many of the mining companies will not survive this bottoming process, which could take 12-18 more months, but I do know there were a lot of intelligent investors on this site who I thought might be interested in my analysis at this point in the market cycle.

Well that's about it. Feel free to check out my video -- or not. Happy investing to all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB1W7N55Tnk

This is part of the ongoing cycle in bull markets. Former bulls get partially thrown off and then must climb back on at higher levels, adding more fuel to the fire. I have stopped listening to the majority of Financial Sense's short or intermediate-term calls, because they are generally mistimed or even flat-out wrong, but I do believe their Austrian background gives them a voice of reason in the otherwise Keynsian world. They certainly taught me a lot, but that was years ago when the show was less focused on short-term timing than it is now.

I would refer you back to Puplava's sentiment back in late August, when he was clearly bearish on gold mining stocks, and specifically mentioned Yamana for evidence as it was "breaking down" below $10/share. That show marked almost the exact low in the HUI over the summer before gold, silver, and the miners all took off to new all-time highs.

Hysteria

"Look at today, when someone other than the Algo Trader wanted to buy, the SP rose to 17 cents. then it immediately went to 15. but none of the new buying went for 15.
So the Algo trader does not have to sell to the market in general, only to himself."

I haven't posted for a while due to personal commitments, but I just thought I would chime in here and answer this statement:

I was able to buy today at 15 cents. My bid was hit 50 separate times from 9:38 to 11:35 AM in 500-share chunks. Then, following this, my bid was hit for an additional 32K shares at the same price.

Hysteria

Full FS Reserves are valued right now at around $295 per ounce across the market's producing gold miners.

PFS Reserves, although sometimes sufficient to move into production, do receive a lower valuation. Certain mining analysts do not consider them sufficient to put them in the same category as FS Reserves. I have not seen a statistic on how much lower they are valued, except to say that there is a reason why companies usually do a full FS.

Even full FS Reserves for companies that the market doubts will find financing to build a mine will not receive anywhere near the average $295 valuation. See Terrane, whose 6.0M P&P Reserves are valued in the $60/oz range.

Hysteria

Joe,

Thanks, that's a bit of the perspective I was looking for. Many of the gold miners are undervalued here, and that was the point of my valuation posts from a couple weeks ago based on M&I resources. Thus far based on numbers I am seeing across the spectrum Kimber's valuation seems to be in line with the market.

I am convinced that valuations across the board will rise, and that is why I'm here.

Hysteria