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Thoughts on Timing

Yep, this is DumDum3 from SH.


Sorry, was a bit hungover when I wrote my last message..will try to be clearer regarding my thoughts on timing.



  • Teck will not/cannot act before release of BFS (they can't, as they've participated in its review, and therefore they are in possession of material undisclosed information).

  • I had thought PREVIOUSLY (pre-NovaGold/Galore), that they would act one way or the other as soon as the BFS was released, as there is no point for delaying that decision. They've seen the BFS and they should know what they're gonna do. Major companies generally don't fuss around with decisions like this that they already have sufficient info to make. Dragging things out could see CUU tick up (or tick down), either way, it's uncertain and not worth/and risky protracting.

  • However, as a result of the NovaGold/Galore sales process and Teck's 90 day ROFR, they will most likely not act with any urgency on CUU as they need to see how the Galore process plays out (Lindsay has said this).

  • So, they will likely take their full 120 days or at least as much time as possible pending outcome of Galore (and that's after release of BFS).

  • The last CUU press release clearly opened the door for the possibility of further delays in the release of BFS, and based on CONSISTENT track record (don't be in denial people), it's a real possibility.

  • Among the universe of prospective buyers looking for massive "pounds in the ground" reserves, anyone considering NovaGold's assets would also have considered CUU's (the universe of such buyers is really not that big).

  • Doesn't matter if CUU's assets are superior and more economic, you have a decided and committed seller in NovaGold that has publicly stated that they will sell their interests by year end.

  • They've already engaged two major banks (JP Morgan and RBC).

  • Those banks will hustle.

  • It will get sold.

  • One less buyer.

  • All the while, CUU is still dilly dallying about the inclusion of silver (this issue remains UNRESOLVED FOR ALMOST A YEAR...C'mon Elmer!!)

  • Too much uncertainty.

  • There are more certain bets out there for me.

  • I'm done waiting.


As I've said before, CUU will inevitably get sold and I do believe patience will be rewarded, but the markets are moving..


Oh, and for those that think the current share price will not be a factor in any buy-out price, sorry, but that's just not how it works. Any CEO of a publicly traded company that agrees to pay a 4 times premium for the shares of another publicly traded company, would be turfed and then shamed, publicly.


All the best.

over 12 years ago
BLACKOUT

Folks, CUU was in blackout because they were releasing their year end financials.


Two to three week blackout periods pending release of financials is standard protocol for public companies.


Done, no more talk about back-room deals.


I think the final end result for CUU will still be positive, but who effin knows about the timeline now..


Let me break it down.


Teck has a 90 day ROFR on Galore. That only gets triggered upon an offer for Galore. Who knows when that will happen..


As Don Lindsay said, they will sit back and see how that plays out.


Accordingly, they will see how that plays out before they make any move on CUU. Theoretically they could exercise their ROFR and take out all of Galore depending on who steps up and what offer they make..


Therefore, that story must play out, before CUU's story plays out.


Anyone aside from Tecck who may possibly be looking into buying CUU is also looking into buying NovaGold's interests in Galore.


Now, it's a buyer's market.


I have to say, you are one dedicated bunch and I hope you all make money.


That said, it's all about opportunity cost and based on where we're at, there is a lot of uncertainty as to when this story is going to end.

over 12 years ago
DumDum
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