UC Resources Ltd.

Wrote this on Noront's page, but it applies to all ROF jrs

Siege Offensive

I know that the financial numbers do not show an advantage to taking out the JV’s. However, as much as we’d like to think discovering ore is the true war here, we are sitting ducks. That’s like playing poker and thinking the real way to win is drawing the right cards. If that were true, then the star poker players would not consistently win. It’s between the players, not the cards. The real war is between Cliffs and everyone else who wants to make multiple profits, despite ore value.

Keep these questions in mind that keep tickling my brain through the following discussion. What did Noront achieve by luring out Cliffs? Did Noront’s preemptive bid for Freewest reveal an intent to dominate regionally. Has this changed, just because they lost FWR? Did Wes actually want FWR land or did he want to flush out lurking majors. If so, and having discovered Cliffs, what was their gain? Is Noront proving E-nest for production financing or for the prospect of a major’s offer?

Noront’s current objective is to prove up enough ore that they become feasible. Its defense against a hostile takeover is to give shareholders enough incentive to demand a multiple premium or to lure the backing of another major to defend them. But I see this as making Noront a sitting duck, like stocking up provisions in a castle while the enemy burns your lands and acquires your neighbors resources, gaining strength while you starve and weaken. Even if taking over SPQ and KWG doesn’t make financial sense, it doesn’t change the status that an enemy is on your land. Would you ignore something that stinks because you are afraid of the visual should you investigate?

I’d prefer to investigate how Noront can take the offensive. Cliffs has two advantages that Noront does not have, money and an economic ore -chromite. Noront has one advantage that Cliffs doesn’t have, lots of land and therefor the potential to find more feasible ore then Cliffs. Noront has flushed out and witnessed Cliffs’s acquisition tactic with FWR and now it’s jv’s. An offer starts out from Cliffs' perspective as a premium percentage increase, not multiples as we microcaps expect. Then the JR will have to fight tooth and nail to get a multiple gain. In the end their lands are raped.

Noront can create a blockade to Cliffs supply line, the railroad, and to Cliffs own ore expansion. To do this Noront will need to acquire UC, PRB, FNC, and though not likely, the FWR JV’s. If successful, Cliffs will have no choice but to negotiate with Noront or attempt a buyout. At the very least, such an offensive would give Noront negotiating position for access to Cliff’s infrastructure. You’ve got to assume Cliffs is thinking along the same lines.

I’ve consistently pushed this all along, that this will be a land grab for Cliffs. If Noront does not do this, Cliffs will take out the neighboring lands themselves in the same manner as KWG and SPQ, and no one makes real money, and make Noront crawl for access to their own nickel. Consider FWR and JV’s could have much more profit then just chromite for their 1.8 bil investment in this remote area for the next 100 years. Also, consider that the ROF’s mineral is too rich to assume E-nest is the mother-load, and she is still resting out there undiscovered. Hpw would Cliffs shareholders feel if they were investing 1.8 bil for infrastructure while someone else discover the ROF motherload?

Mainly consider that Cliffs is very much aware that another nickel strike, be it FNC or AT-12, TBM, could attract a new major with real cash to buy our neighbors thus creating a blockade which would force Cliffs to fork out real money if they want access to their own chromite or expand their own ore discoveries. Or does anyone think Cliffs will content themselves with chromite alone, even if they accidently came across PGE’s and other ores?

Pure curiosity of the geological story under our lands, including faults and submergences dividing NOT and FNC, makes you believe Cliffs wants to explore more when they take back their camp from Fancamp in a month. FNC's massive sulphide tail discovery doesn't occur all by itself. Voisey's Bay chased a meter tail for many holes before discovering the Eastern Deeps at least 10 times Eagle’s Nest. And what's TBM got going up there?

This always seems to boil down to my consistent premise: In the end, land will be the leverage to negotiate with the owners of the infrastructure. Cliffs is not going to stop with FWR, KWG, and SPQ. Noront, Probe, UC, Fancamp will be targeted. We JR’s need to coordinate how to protect ourselves for a Cliffs hostile takeover. Noront is in the best position to consolidate the JR. Certainly attracting a new major would allow them to do this before Cliffs does it, if there is time.

Here lies the sitting duck problem. It’s difficult to unite those that are economically strapped. Everyone’s looking for that windfall and they assume a union will deprive them of that chance. Would Fancamp want to unite with Noront before they’ve found their own nickel? No. This is where the predators prey. This is where Cliffs will pounce. This is where those unsatisfied questions tickling my brain about why NOT tried to takeout FWR become important. What was the point of an FWR offer without further action within a larger game plan?

The Siege of Breda is upon us or it could be upon Cliffs. This summer will tell the tale.

-Stockgreed