The offer is 0.1755 shares of G plus 1/3 share on New Probe. New probe is essentially $19 million dollars (plus some properties that may or may not have future value) spread out over 105 million shares fully diluted of Prb or $0.18 per Prb share.
At the moment G is trading for $28.98 which means in a perfect world Prb should be trading for $5.28 (0.1755*$29.07 + $0.18) but are Prb is trading for a discounted amount of $5.15. Seems to be in the range of a $0.10-$0.14 discount each time I look.
I am hopeful that there will be a second bidder such as AEM but don't see any evidence of it yet. Who knows who is buying the millions of shares that have been bought and sold yesterday and today.
As an aside AEM stands to make a financing profit of about $40 million by just cashing out their shares on the G offer. G stands to make around the same if a second bidder enters (share appreciation plus break up fee) or getting an exceptional property cheap if no one else bids and this goes through. The only real downside for G is if we vote the offer down and they don't get a breakup fee.
For us mushrooms we need to figure out what to do based upon what we are able to find out or pressure managemnt to release.
So my horizon is 3 weeks and if nothing happens by then I'll cash out and move on.
... Been There
