LTGoldBull2:
I consider Probe marginal because there are no PEA, Met., PFS, or FS reports issued as of two days ago. There are no Proven Reserves or Probale Reserves published as of two days ago. So far there are only Inferred and Indicated Resources because of the lack of enough in-fill work.
I estimate it would take 36 months from today for 200,000 oz annual production to be reached. What will the cost inputs be at that time? The price of gold at that time? These are all unknowable now.
I think the all-in producing inputs for Probe right now would be US$1350 with net after tax of US$231 oz.
By production they will have issued 125,000.000 shares.
US$231 oz x 200,000 oz ap = US$46,200,000 / 125,000,000 sh. = 0.37 sh x 40 pe = US$14.78 share price. That is a marginal return for the risk taken because all my inputs above are wags not based on any facts because of the lack of any reports noted above. These are all static numbers not likely to hold up over time.
I'm speculating that Probe is going to have a producing mine at BL. Possibly more than one mine. Now I''m really guessing.
In three years I think gold will be above US$2500 oz. Maybe $5,000 to $10,000 more even higher if the world looses confidence in the US$, $US Treasuries, a derivative event, or a black swan takes place that few see coming.
Or gold might take a 50% correction from the high down to $1000 level like it did in the 1970's. I would'nt like that to happen. In my view its not likely to happen. But we allknow stuff happens.
From my viewpoint Probes got to be making at least $1.50 oz eps then the risk will have been worth it to me. Maybe not others.
Assuming that negative stuff does'nt happen regarding gold price I think well are all going to be happy campers three/four years from now.
Good luck to us all.
eom.
