I find my self in large agreement with both you and Tucci. It's interesting that I was considering a post along these lines before sitting back in front of my computer.
First, a possible pump - though I think my expectations are pretty realistic. IMO, with action by the PTO to terminate/NIRC the current re-exam of the '336, I think we're good for a PPS jump to .70-.75, immediately. This is based largely on our prior experience when the we got the last NIRC - but with hair on it based on the knowledge that there was another possible re-exam waiting in the wings. That hair isn't growing on the current re-exam.
IMO, shortly thereafter, we'll see a good deal more PPS appreciation. I won't even hazard a guess.... Why more? Because I believe it is reasonable to suspect that at least 10% of those 225 companies with which Alliacense is in "active" discussion will license in pretty short order. Others will then follow (as it becomes more a competition issue), and any litigation involving the '336 will likely settle.
Why are infringers holding back? A rise in the demanded licensing fee is certain one good possible reason. The other has more to do with what Tucci said, and what I've said in the past along these lines. No company CEO/BoD relishes the idea of spending bottom line dollars for something involving a big question mark. Until the '336 is "clean", a question mark remains. As Tucci (and I, previously) points out, nobody wants to spend a pile of money when it may turn out they didn't have to spend a dime. It's job preservation. If they spend the money, and later it turns out they didn't have to, how do they justify their decision to shareholders? But if the patent is deemed valid and retains its teeth, the payment is justified - a cost of doing business that they, and their competition, will incur. Their decision to license will be justified.
I'll let it go at that....
JMHOs,
SGE
