I think a reasonable bullish case is using $10k per ton, 60k tons per year and 8% discount rate. In this case, NPV is $2.2B USD not using the $368M USD in tax credits. Our current MC is around $55M CAN so we are trading at less than 2% of this NPV. Ridiculous upside here as we all know.
For ZEN to move this closer to 30% of NPV $2.2B USD or $14 CAN, we need to know how the financing will be done, how much dilution we will get from raising these funds. Solve the money and we are golden. Right now, I think we are too low for our fundamentals and it looks like we may see a correction here. I would like to see us back between $1.50 and $1.80 before any significant news.
ZEN management confirmed they have had many meetings with both levels of governments. If they announced a fast tracked permitting process or large grants from these discussions, this would also move us up the ladder of % of NPV. The federal budget is in less then 2 weeks, seeing something of significance there would be very bullish for ZEN.
Sorry Inca for the delay in answering your question. I hope my answer helped.
Glorieux
