Well that pretty much sums it up nicely.
What makes me a buyer right here and now is the timeline of the buyout. Those drill results from Sourdough were significantly higher than drill results from the Gil, and those airborne mags Kinross flew instantly triggered a bid. What are they seeing we are not?
Although the JV expires in May, 2011 I am betting this will be a done deal before this year's drill season even begins. If the Sourdough area of the property contains the potential both companies think it does, why would Kinross want to spend "X" amount of dollars drilling it in 2010 when it will only increase the amount of the eventual buyout by 2X, 3X or more.
Not only that, but if you are investing in gold stocks you are obviously bullish on the metal itself, and believe prices for the metal are going further north from here.... sitting on their thumbs will not give Kinross a better deal.
Interested where you heard the low-ball buyout offer of 30 cents.... That seems stupid-low even for an initial shot over the bow, but would explain the tape-action on the day of the buyout offer.
As for $$ paid per Oz. in the ground, I think it will go closer to $200/oz simply because the infastructure is already in place... using my figure of 1.25 MIL Oz's (somewhat consvervative, but better to err this way) would give a buyout price of $50 MIL, or roughly 85 cents a share. Using an even more conservative figure of $150/Oz gives me about 63.5 cents per share. So there is my price target, somewhere between 63.5 - 85 cents, and I believe those to be very realistic numbers, not some pie-in-the-sky fantasy buyout.
Bottom line is Kinross needs the ore, and they want it all for themselves, soon, period.
