Last week's news about the FBI investigation of Hillary's emails have put the election back on the front burner. The market had largely priced in a Hillary win, but now the polls have tightened and Trump is once again a factor - the market is getting nervous. Volatility will likely continue through election day, and if Trump wins or there is an issue like Bush vs Gore, expect a mini-crash and a big jump for gold.
I bought Trump insurance last week (cheap out of the money Nov 11 calls on UVXY). They are already up over 300% just from the possibility of a Trump victory - they will go crazy if Trump wins (and become worthless if Hillary wins). I plan to sell half on Monday and let the rest ride. Right now I actually think the election is a tossup.
If Trump wins, there will be a market event similar to, but much larger than Brexit - sharp 2-3 day plunge accompanied by a massive VIX spike. The market will take much longer to recover, but the volatility will be hard to sustain, so I will buy March or June puts on UVXY.
I am afraid - very afraid that Trump might win. But if he does, at least I want to sieze the opportunity to profit from the event.
