Fairchij: You need to have another listen to what Suresh said at the beginning of the presentation. The AOC is expected to be delivered to customers in 2017 for evaluation...It has been talked about here a few times. Commercial level production for deliveries are expect in 2018.
Yes, from 00:06:43 on, Suresh speaks about the typical "gap of time between successfully demonstrating a functional device and commercial revenue from volume production. Between these two milestones there is additional product optimization, customer evaluation, customer qualification and ultimately establishing distribution channels". However, he doesn't mention 2017 explicitly as being the "gap year", although this is quite likely what he meant and would be in line with what we are thinking regarding export permit delays and Wavetek production run delays.
Which made me look up again in the presentation deck what Suresh expects for which year. Here's an overview:
2016:
- Revenue from DenseLight products (slide 23)
- Revenue expected to exceed $2M in 2H’16 driven by sale of sensing products (slide 34)
2017:
- DenseLight: ISO9000 compliant facility – 2x wafer capacity expected in 2017 (slide 16)
- Advanced stage discussions for NRE; expect first NRE revenue in 2017 (slide 32)
- Product sales established in large and high growth photonic market segments with recent acquisitions: expected 2017 revenue growth year/year to be driven by component sales, DenseLight business unit expected to reach positive operating cash flow in 1H2017 (slide 34)
2018+:
- Active optical cables, short-reach transceivers (slides 23, 29)
What we need is a much more detailed and specific milestone plan. For example, active optical cables are targeted for 2018. However, not only has that target to be specified more clearly, i.e. what are the measurable criteria for having met the target, POET should also explain what the milestones on the road to this target are and when they most likely will be met, in order to enable us to clearly recognize advances and/or delays.
