1) There is no epic fail here. The science is proven, the engineering must follow. And it is very late stage engineering at that, tweaking the epitaxy by the sound of it.
2) You do not want a VCSEL transceiver announced without attendant NRE and/or at least one, preferably more, big backers in the form of customers. The current valuation is a vulnerability that warrants having these in place when they do announce an integrated device. Locking up those deals could delay an announcement, but would likely be extremely rewarding for us.
3) The tone here is one of uncertainty and apprehension, understood, especially if this is affecting your financial liquidity. If you approach this as " I will feel better about holding on if I know my needs are covered thru (you fill in the blank) " you should implement that strategy and buy some peace of mind. And give yourself a window of at least a few weeks if you must trade so you don't give market makers more leverage than they already have.
4) The bread crumbs have been few, but they do point to a path; new industry focussed IR in place at a higher investment (SV and co are tight with a buck) indicates expectations for more, rather than less, need for services; cleaning up the filings; products anticipated this quarter.
CAinPlap accurately pointed out a lack of buyers last week. Players play, and they might try to trigger a fall to the 52 week low of .72 to encourage sellers (realistically, a lack of any news this month could trigger that as well). It's why #3 above is important.
I doubt that when Ajit said weeks, not months, that he was way off his assessment. Personally, I'm guessing a 60% likelihood of significant news on the transceiver this month, 90% by early December. Not scientific, just how I am planning. Beyond that, absent of any news, a whole different ball game. But I think SV and co recognize the impact that would have on their credibility, so that's something I cannot address until that time.
