POET Technologies Inc.

InThisThinRain: A Beautiful Poem: "Odd post from you Rainer, I hope what exciting info you've heard, actually comes to be."

I thought the same thing, ABP. Rainer is not usually given to prognostication.

Ah, my bad, sorry! I forgot to quote 1998BMWZ3's post, mine was indended to be an answer to, and I understand that my post really seems odd when being read out of context. So here's what it really should have been like, picking up 1998BMWZ3's "being very positive" and "exciting" as well as playing with the buzzword "soon":

1998BMWZ3: I am very positive that the next 12 months are going to see some real growth for us. Hopefully the forum can be somewhere that gets us excited again.

Rainer: An #exciting announcement will get us #excited instantly. I am very positive such an announcement will come, em, #soon.

I have not heard of any new information. My statement is grounded in the observation that this forum is over the moon every time there is news, while people tend to pick on each other if there is no news, i.e. most of the time. When there's positive news, the forum typically switches into excitement mode instantly, then the excitement declines again and goes into the negative. If it were for the mood of the forum, there should be news every two weeks or so.

But the real question is why do I expect positive news? My expectation is grounded in the following presuppositions and statements as well as trust in manament (except for their communication skills):

• It is only a matter of time for the VCSEL to become fully optimized and integrated.
• It is only a matter of time for the integrated VCSEL transceiver to become completed and taped-out.
• Suresh Venkatesan at the THM: "The epitaxy, to me, that’s the most important thing, has been solved. Because, look, the magic is in the epitaxy, if you don’t get that right, you don’t get anything right. The processing sequences are tuned for the factory. We spent a lot of time tooling it at Anadigics and now we have to redo all that work, because they have different tools, different equipment. But that is engineering, it is not innovation, it just takes time, and that’s what we’re working on. But I’m confident we’ll be able to get there, whether it’s going to be exactly in June or a few weeks here or there. I don’t see any challenges other than being focused 100 percent. Subhash was there last week working with Wavetek on this."
• Ajit Manocha at the THM: "So with the detector announcement was made; the VCSEL is there, but it is just not fully optimized. That’s why it is in the presentation that we are trying to optimize the VCSEL. So now when you start the process from, again, starting with new wafers, by the time it finishes, it may not happen by June 30th, but it doesn’t mean we are going to miss the milestones. But I want you to just have the mindset here that when we say Q2, [it means] plus/minus few weeks. It’s not plus/minus quarters."
• The outstanding photodetector is being developed into a separate product while we speak: "POET intends to commercialize its integrated resonant cavity detector as its first product and demonstrate this prototype by the end of 2016."
• There could be additional candy, like new DenseLight products, A*STAR/IMRE outcome, etc., but the real driver will be the VCSEL transceiver, followed (in importance) and preceded (in time) by the photodetector.

So, to me, there is no question if positive news will come, but when. And the word "soon" must also be seen in context here, read: in the context of semiconductor manufacturing, where developing an epitaxy modification, producing new wafers, shipping them to the foundry and processing them there, easily takes – let me guess – four weeks or so. And if shipment is delayed by, say, waiting for an export permit or by other circumstances, this could take even longer, although those periods might overlap somewhat.

Personally, I am looking forward to the October announcement/conference call with guidance and quite likely with a detailed technical update.