Any interest here in developing a product pipeline/timeline? The goal would be, as objectively and conservatively as possible, to identify devices, estimated timeframes for commercialization, markets for such and anticipated models of monetization. I'm thinking along the lines of a biotech model from PreClinical thru Phase III as an example.
Sketching it out, it could look something like Class (Connectivity, Semiconductor, etc) > Device (VCSEL, IC, Sensor, etc)> Development Stage (Lab Proven, Lab Proto, Commercial Proto, Produceable Device).
We could then develop a monetization model for each: Addressable Market Size> Capture Potential/% > Monetization (Own/License/Royalty/Other) $/% > Potential Revenues, other?
This could be a work in progress based on information in hand. Once these models are developed, they could be enhanced to include some valuation modeling based on this set of data.
We could use strict parameters/rules, for example, whenever possible, data must be based on known facts (industry/market data, reported targets), projections must be fair/reasonable, utilizing known models, demonstrated industry results, etc. Consensus acceptance of estimates would be required.
Dates would incorporate (first) those provided by the company, then conservative approximations based on demonstrated history of product development. (For example: POET chip lab prototype 1H2017, commercial prototype 2H 2017, commercial device 1H2018----example only!)
A 5 year model max to 2020 will provide adequate room for reasonable speculation but will likely leave those longer range goals (quantum computing, then, teleportation) in the realm of speculation.
It could be a work in progress. There are lots of unknowns, but it might be surprising (and who knows, maybe some sell side analysts might actually take a peek at it as well).
Would appreciate Hub Leader feedback if this needs to go to OT or PM, but interested to hear board's thoughts. My excel and presentation skills are rudimentary and dated, but I would be willing to collect, categorize and otherwise haul the buckets and whatever else I could to contribute.
