The share price of POET right now is event driven.
Events...The exercise of warrants. This is seen by many as an overhang and has also provided the short position with a level of comfort that shares could enter the market where the owners of those warrants have to sell some shares to pay for the warrants. I do not believe that the warrant holders are short but it is possible. However that is in fact good news for share price stability if this is the case...Some will argue differently on this point. If any of the warrant holders were short then those shares that they have shorted would have been presold into the market to pay for the warrants that they are exercising and they simply cover the short with shares that they receive from exercising. For example the 731k warrants that expire on June 22. If the warrant holder needed to sell shares in the current market to pay for those warrants this equate to selling 166k shares to exercise 731k warrants. So selling required is very small if required to pay for those warrants.
Right now the short I believe is covering because many see this stock as pretty solid at this level and there are simply too many positives being anticipated to risk continuing to hold the short. This is also a signal which TA will not capture.
In terms of overhang the next warrants don't come due to the end of July and Mazan holds those 900k. After that the Sept warrants with many of those exercised very early by Pinetree and Sheldon.
So Event driven means to me that we have many positive events that are getting too close for comfort for those holding the shorts. The milestones, deals, the potential that a NASDAQ listing pricing will be driven by an event that no one can forecast with accuracy.
Time to get back to the garden.
