Here is some more of what Joel Hruska had to say late this afternoon.......
Here's something you may or may not know -- I get pitches like this on a weekly basis. About once a month, someone claims to be on the verge of breaking the semiconductor bottleneck and reinventing a new paradigm for Moore's law. (POET hasn't contacted me).
Sometimes I hop on the phone with companies and write up the announcements but always with an eye towards the difficulty of the technology and the size of the claim.
POET is a research firm, not a company planning to bring the technology to market. It lists acquisition as one of its paths to monetization and if if it ends up acquired by a foundry or major semconductor designer, I agree that'll be a shot in the arm.
In these realms, however, I am a professional skeptic until one of two things happens:
1). A technology shows up on ITRS roadmaps or equivalent documents with strong independent support from multiple vendors as the agreed-upon method for transforming the future of the industry.
2). Someone like Intel, Samsung, or an equivalent acquires the rights to a technology and announces plans for a major rollout.
#1 is better than #2. But the slowdown on EUV and the pause on 450mm wafers is proof that not even #1 is immune to delay.
