POET Technologies Inc.

Here a couple of thoughts I have on our current situation.

Like others, I would prefer that POET be less specific about the MS dates if they know from past experience that they can never meet them. They know it irritates shareholders and has an impact on the SP so it would be better to stick to the quarterly predictions.

Having said that, I've come to the conclusion that we are placing too much emphasis on the completion of the milestones. This has been suggested by some who are closer to the company and I admit I didn't agree at first; without the milestones we have no sense of progress toward the goal of a complete, proven POET. Now I realize that the SP we see now is irrelevant. R&D POET is a completely different animal compared with revenue POET and the SP will bear no resemblance to the current SP once POET makes a deal.

I get a rush like everyone else when I see us blowing past a $1 because it means we have more eyes on us. But again, once we get a deal there will be a new valuation that has nothing to do with today's +/- pennies.

Here's where we are in on the MS chart:

I asked myself what we would have MS5, MS7, MS8 AND the full POET TDK due in Q1. At first it seemed odd that that the full POET TDK would be built before the PET one. Presumably the "O" in POET adds to PET to become POET, no?

No.

POET is complete at feature sizes greater than that of PET. Correspondence with IR led me to understand that POET lasers meet requirements at 500nm. PET has reached 200nm. I think that the POET TDK will be written at these feature sizes in order to supply BAE with the instructions needed to develop POET based products. Afterwards, PET TDKs will be written to meet the needs of the commercial chip industry.

So...my speculation leads me to believe that POET TDK is taking priority and that a deal with BAE is possible when the POET TDK is done. I also think that the MS will be considered complete when their components are integrated into the POET TDK. After all, you can't complete the TDK without all the MS needed to build the designs.

So to recap, the SP won't take shape until we have a BAE deal concurrently announced with the POET TDK which allows BAE to build and license their products and designs. Now that the UConn terms are renegotiated I have no doubt that the details around such a deal are being mulled over by lawyers on both sides. After a deal is done, and after POET products are possible, we will never know what kind of deal might come next so hang on to your shares!

Anyway, these are the assumptions I am operating under at the moment. Feel free to chip away at my logic here because I'd like to know if I'm missing any details.